High-Risk Regions of African Swine Fever Infection in Mozambique

African swine fever (ASF) is a transboundary infectious disease that can infect wild and domestic swine and requires enhanced surveillance between countries. In Mozambique, ASF has been reported across the country, spreading between provinces, mainly through the movement of pigs and their by-products. Subsequently, pigs from bordering countries were at risk of exposure. This study evaluated the spatiotemporal distribution and temporal trends of ASF in swine in Mozambique between 2000 and 2020. During this period, 28,624 cases of ASF were reported across three regions of the country. In total, the northern, central, and southern regions presented 64.9, 17.8, and 17.3% of the total cases, respectively. When analyzing the incidence risk (IR) of ASF per 100,000 pigs, the Cabo Delgado province had the highest IR (17,301.1), followed by the Maputo province (8868.6). In the space-time analysis, three clusters were formed in each region: (i) Cluster A involved the provinces of Cabo Delgado and Nampula (north), (ii) Cluster B involved the province of Maputo and the city of Maputo (south), and (iii) Cluster C consisted of the provinces of Manica and Sofala (central) in 2006. However, when analyzing the temporal trend in the provinces, most were found to be decreasing, except for Sofala, Inhambane, and Maputo, which had a stationary trend. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to evaluate the spatial distribution of ASF in Mozambique. These findings will contribute to increasing official ASF control programs by identifying high-risk areas and raising awareness of the importance of controlling the borders between provinces and countries to prevent their spread to other regions of the world.