The Distribution Pattern and Species Richness of Scorpionflies (Mecoptera: Panorpidae)

SIMPLE SUMMARY: Biodiversity and distribution patterns are important factors for ecological and biogeographical studies. However, half of the high species diversity areas are found in mountainous regions, which have been heavily impacted by climate change, land use changes, and habitat fragmentation. This makes mountain habitats and biodiversity more vulnerable than before. Scorpionflies, as ecological indicators with a narrow distribution, low-temperature preference, and weak migration ability, are ideal animals for studying the impact of climate change on insect distribution. Predicting the distribution of suitable habitats for species in different periods can help clarify the impact of climate change on species distribution and provide guidance for the conservation of endangered species. ABSTRACT: The uneven distribution of species diversity on earth, with mountainous regions housing half of the high species diversity areas, makes mountain ecosystems vital to biodiversity conservation. The Panorpidae are ecological indicators, ideal for studying the impact of climate change on potential insect distribution. This study examines the impact of environmental factors on the distribution of the Panorpidae and analyzes how their distribution has changed over three historical periods, the Last Interglacial (LIG), the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and Current. The MaxEnt model is used to predict the potential distribution area of Panorpidae based on global distribution data. The results show that precipitation and elevation are the primary factors affecting species richness, and the suitable areas for Panorpidae are distributed in southeastern North America, Europe, and southeastern Asia. Throughout the three historical periods, there was an initial increase followed by a decrease in the area of suitable habitats. During the LGM period, there was a maximum range of suitable habitats for cool-adapted insects, such as scorpionflies. Under the scenarios of global warming, the suitable habitats for Panorpidae would shrink, posing a challenge to the conservation of biodiversity. The study provides insights into the potential geographic range of Panorpidae and helps understand the impact of climate change on their distribution.