A prediction model for distant metastasis after isolated locoregional recurrence of breast cancer

PURPOSE: The impact of progesterone receptor (PR) status on the prognosis of breast cancer after isolated locoregional recurrence (ILRR) remains unclear. This study evaluated the impact of clinicopathologic factors, including PR status of ILRR, on distant metastasis (DM) after ILRR. METHODS: We retrospectively identified 306 patients with ILRR diagnosed at the National Cancer Center Hospital between 1993 and 2021 from the database. Cox proportional hazards analysis was performed to examine factors associated with DM after ILRR. We developed a risk prediction model based on the number of detected risk factors and estimated survival curves using the Kaplan–Meier method. RESULTS: During a median follow-up time of 4.7 years after ILRR diagnosis, 86 patients developed DM, and 50 died. Multivariate analysis revealed that seven risk factors were associated with poor distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS): estrogen receptor-positive/PR-negative/human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-negative ILRR, short disease-free interval, recurrence site other than ipsilateral breast, no-resection of ILRR tumor, chemotherapy for the primary tumor, nodal stage in the primary tumor, and no endocrine therapy for ILRR. The predictive model classified patients into 4 groups based on the number of risk factors: low-, intermediate-, high-, and the highest-risk groups with 0 to 1, 2, 3 to 4, and 5 to 7 factors, respectively. This revealed significant variation in DMFS among the groups. A higher number of the risk factors was associated with poorer DMFS. CONCLUSION: Our prediction model, which considered the ILRR receptor status, may contribute to the development of a treatment strategy for ILRR. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10549-023-06901-7.