Human health-risk assessment of heavy metal–contaminated soil based on Monte Carlo simulation

Soil contamination soils of by heavy metals (HMs) poses serious threats to the soil environment and enters the human body through exposure pathways such as ingestion and skin contact, posing a threat to human health. The purpose of this study was to analyze the sources and contributions of soil HMs, and to quantitatively assess the human health risks of soil HMs to different populations (i.e. children, adult females and adult males), and to analyze the human health risks caused by various sources of sensitive populations. 170 topsoil (0–20 cm) were collected from Fukang, Jimsar and Qitai on the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains in Xinjiang, China, and the contents of Zn, Cu, Cr, Pb and Hg were determined. This study used the Unmix model and a health-risk assessment (HRA) model to assess the human health risks of five HMs. The results showed that: (1) The mean values of Zn and Cr were lower than the background values of Xinjiang, the mean values of Cu and Pb were slightly higher than the background values of Xinjiang but lower than the national standard, and the mean value of Hg and Pb was higher than the background value of Xinjiang and the national standard. (2) The sources of soil HMs in the region were mainly traffic, natural, coal, and industrial sources. Moreover, the HRA model combined with Monte Carlo simulation showed similar trends in the health-risk status of all population groups in the region. Probabilistic HRA revealed that noncarcinogenic risks were acceptable for all populations (HI < 1) while carcinogenic risks were high (children: 77.52%; female: 69.09%; male: 65.63%). For children, carcinogenic risk from industrial and coal sources exceeded the acceptable threshold by 2.35 and 1.20 times, respectively, and Cr was the main element contributing to human carcinogenic risk. These findings suggest that carcinogenic risks from coal-based Cr emissions cannot be ignored, and the study area should aim to control Cr emissions from industrial sources. The results of this study provide support for the prevention of human health risks and the control of soil HMs pollution across different age groups.