Early antidepressant treatment response prediction in major depression using clinical and TPH2 DNA methylation features based on machine learning approaches

OBJECTIVE: To identify DNA methylation and clinical features, and to construct machine learning classifiers to assign the patients with major depressive disorder (MDD) into responders and non-responders after a 2-week treatment into responders and non-responders. METHOD: Han Chinese patients (291 in total) with MDD comprised the study population. Datasets contained demographic information, environment stress factors, and the methylation levels of 38 methylated sites of tryptophan hydroxylase 2 (TPH2) genes in peripheral blood samples. Recursive Feature Elimination (RFE) was employed to select features. Five classification algorithms (logistic regression, classification and regression trees, support vector machine, logitboost and random forests) were used to establish the models. Performance metrics (AUC, F-Measure, G-Mean, accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value) were computed with 5-fold-cross-validation. Variable importance was evaluated by random forest algorithm. RESULT: RF with RFE outperformed the other models in our samples based on the demographic information and clinical features (AUC = 61.2%, 95%CI: 60.1-62.4%) / TPH2 CpGs features (AUC = 66.6%, 95%CI: 65.4-67.8%) / both clinical and TPH2 CpGs features (AUC = 72.9%, 95%CI: 71.8-74.0%). CONCLUSION: The effects of TPH2 on the early-stage antidepressant response were explored by machine learning algorithms. On the basis of the baseline depression severity and TPH2 CpG sites, machine learning approaches can enhance our ability to predict the early-stage antidepressant response. Some potentially important predictors (e.g., TPH2-10-60 (rs2129575), TPH2-2-163 (rs11178998), age of first onset, age) in early-stage treatment response could be utilized in future fundamental research, drug development and clinical practice. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12888-023-04791-z.