A prediction model for left ventricular thrombus persistence/recurrence: based on a prospective study and a retrospective study

BACKGROUND: It remains unknown whether anticoagulation for persistent left ventricular (LV) thrombus should be continued indefinitely. Identifying patients with a high risk of thrombus unresolved may be helpful to determine the optimum anticoagulation duration. This study aimed to develop a prediction model to forecast thrombus persistence or recurrence in patients with LV thrombus. METHODS: We enrolled patients prospectively from 2020 to 2022 and retrospectively from 2013 to 2019 at the National Center of Cardiovascular Diseases of China. The two cohorts were then combined to derive predictive models of thrombus persistence/recurrence. The primary study comprised patients who received systemic oral anticoagulants and had imaging records available at the end of a 3-month follow-up period. The Lasso regression algorithm and the logistic regression were performed to select independent predictors. The calibration curve was generated and a nomogram risk prediction model was applied as a risk stratification tool. RESULTS: A total of 172 (64 in the prospective cohort and 108 in the retrospective cohort) patients were included, with 124 patients in a training set and 48 patients in a validation set. Six predictors were incorporated into the multivariate logistic regression prediction model. The area under the receiving operating characteristic was 0.852 in the training set and 0.631 in the validation set. Patients with protuberant thrombus and higher baseline D-dimer levels had a reduced risk of persistence/recurrence (OR 0.17, 95% CI 0.03–0.69, P = 0.025; OR 0.67, 95% CI 0.43–0.91, P = 0.030, separately), whereas thicker thrombus was linked to an increased rate of persistent thrombus (OR 1.11, 95% CI 1.05–1.20, P = 0.002). Additionally, patients with diverse diagnoses or receiving different antiplatelet treatments had different rates of LV thrombus persistence/recurrence at 3 months. CONCLUSIONS: This prediction model provides tools to forecast the occurrence of persistent/recurrent thrombus and allows the identification of characteristics associated with unresolved thrombus. To validate the model and determine the duration of anticoagulation in patients with persistent thrombus, prospective randomized trials are necessary. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12959-023-00488-1.