A biomarker-validated time scale in years of disease progression has identified early- and late-onset subgroups in sporadic Alzheimer’s disease

BACKGROUND: It is possible to calculate the number of years to the expected clinical onset (YECO) of autosomal-dominant Alzheimer’s disease (adAD). A similar time scale is lacking for sporadic Alzheimer’s disease (sAD). The purpose was to design and validate a time scale in YECO for patients with sAD in relation to CSF and PET biomarkers. METHODS: Patients diagnosed with Alzheimer’s disease (AD, n = 48) or mild cognitive impairment (MCI, n = 46) participated in the study. They underwent a standardized clinical examination at the Memory clinic, Karolinska University Hospital, Stockholm, Sweden, which included present and previous medical history, laboratory screening, cognitive assessment, CSF biomarkers (Aβ(42), total-tau, and p-tau), and an MRI of the brain. They were also assessed with two PET tracers, (11)C-Pittsburgh compound B and (18)F-fluorodeoxyglucose. Assuming concordance of cognitive decline in sAD and adAD, YECO for these patients was calculated using equations for the relationship between cognitive performance, YECO, and years of education in adAD (Almkvist et al. J Int Neuropsychol Soc 23:195-203, 2017). RESULTS: The mean current point of disease progression was 3.2 years after the estimated clinical onset in patients with sAD and 3.4 years prior to the estimated clinical onset in patients with MCI, as indicated by the median YECO from five cognitive tests. The associations between YECO and biomarkers were significant, while those between chronological age and biomarkers were nonsignificant. The estimated disease onset (chronological age minus YECO) followed a bimodal distribution with frequency maxima before (early-onset) and after (late-onset) 65 years of age. The early- and late-onset subgroups differed significantly in biomarkers and cognition, but after control for YECO, this difference disappeared for all except the APOE e4 gene (more frequent in early- than in late-onset). CONCLUSIONS: A novel time scale in years of disease progression based on cognition was designed and validated in patients with AD using CSF and PET biomarkers. Two early- and late-disease onset subgroups were identified differing with respect to APOE e4. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13195-023-01231-8.