Association between triglyceride-glucose index and risk of end-stage renal disease in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and chronic kidney disease

AIMS: It has been suggested that the triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index is a novel and reliable surrogate marker of insulin resistance (IR). However, its relationship with the risk of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and chronic kidney disease (CKD) remains uncertain. Accordingly, we sought to examine the relationship between the TyG index and ESRD risk in patients with T2DM and CKD. METHODS: From January 2013 to December 2021, 1,936 patients with T2DM and CKD hospitalized at Peking University Third Hospital (Beijing, China) were enrolled into the study. The formula for calculating the TyG index was ln[fasting triglyceride (mg/dL) × fasting blood glucose (mg/dL)/2]. ESRD was defined as an estimated glomerular filtration rate of less than 15 mL/min/1.73 m(2) or the commencement of dialysis or renal transplantation. The relationship between the TyG index and ESRD risk was analyzed using Cox proportional hazard regression. RESULTS: 105 (5.42%) participants developed ESRD over a mean follow-up of 41 months. The unadjusted analysis revealed a 1.50-fold (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.17-1.93; P = 0.001) increased risk for ESRD per one unit rise in the TyG index, and the positive association remained stable in the fully adjusted model (hazard ratio, 1.49; 95% CI, 1.12-1.99; P = 0.006). Analysis using restricted cubic spline revealed a significant positive association between the TyG index and ESRD risk. In addition, Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed significant risk stratification with a TyG index cutoff value of 9.5 (P = 0.003). CONCLUSION: In individuals with T2DM and CKD, a significant and positive association was shown between an elevated TyG index and the risk of ESRD. This conclusion provides evidence for the clinical importance of the TyG index for evaluating renal function decline in individuals with T2DM and CKD.