Forecasting of digital financial crimes in Russia based on machine learning methods

In the modern world, economic relations, business, and markets are increasingly being transferred to the online world. Accordingly, the percentage of a new type of financial fraud – digital crimes – is also growing. In Russia, they are one of the leaders in economic crimes. Constant development and improvement of digital technologies make for the emergence of increasingly sophisticated types of digital fraud. Information security management systems are among the most important parts of both public and private internal policy of the enterprises that use them. Every year, the issue of combating cyber attacks is becoming more acute. For example, in 2021, the volume of transactions without the consent of bank customers increased by 38.8% compared to 2020. For cyber risks not to lead to such serious consequences, it is necessary to determine the influence of external factors on the dynamics of digital financial crimes in Russia. We will develop a predictive system based on machine learning methods to predict the number of digital financial crimes. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11416-023-00480-3.