Baseline neutrophil-to- ratio combined with the change during treatment provides risk stratification for metastatic malignant melanoma patients treated with PD-1 inhibitors in a Chinese population

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have suggested that an elevated baseline neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (BLNLR) and elevated relative change of NLR (ΔNLR%) is associated with worse outcomes in patients with a variety of cancers. This study aims to investigate the value of BLNLR and ΔNLR% before the third cycle of treatment on the prognosis of patients with metastatic malignant melanoma treated with PD-1 inhibitors. METHODS: A total of 63 patients with metastatic malignant melanoma treated with PD-1 inhibitors in the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University from January 2017 to December 2021 were retrospectively analyzed. BLNLR and ΔNLR% before the third cycle of treatment were collected. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to draw survival curves and Log-Rank test was used for survival analysis. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis were used to analyze the relationship between BLNLR, ΔNLR% and clinical characteristics with progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). RESULTS: Univariate analysis showed that PFS and OS were associated with BLNLR, ΔNLR%, BMI and number of metastatic organs (P < 0.05). Multivariate analysis showed that BLNLR, ΔNLR%, BMI and number of metastatic organs were independent predictors of OS and BLNLR and ΔNLR% were independent predictors of PFS. Patients were divided into four groups according to BLNLR (<3, ≥3) and ΔNLR% (< 30%, ≥30%): low-BLNLR + low-ΔNLR% group, low-BLNLR + high-ΔNLR% group, high-BLNLR + low-ΔNLR% group, high-BLNLR + high-ΔNLR% group. The median OS was 20 months, 8 months, 9 months, 5 months and the median PFS was 8 months, 3 months, 2 months, 2 months, respectively. CONCLUSION: BLNLR combined with ΔNLR% can be used to predict the prognosis of PD-1 inhibitors in patients with metastatic malignant melanoma.