A predictive model for acute exacerbation of idiopathic interstitial pneumonias

BACKGROUND: Acute exacerbation of idiopathic interstitial pneumonias (AE-IIPs) induces permanent pulmonary dysfunction and is potentially lethal. The unpredictable occurrence of AE-IIPs remains an important clinical issue in the management of IIPs. METHODS: In this multicentre, retrospective, observational study, a predictive score for AE-IIPs was designed using clinical factors based on multivariate Fine–Gray analysis in patients with IIPs. RESULTS: Based on multivariate Fine–Gray analysis in an exploratory cohort of 487 patients with IIPs, the predictive score for AE-IIPs was determined as follows: 1 point each was added for honeycombing on high-resolution computed tomography (H), age >75 years (A) and lactate dehydrogenase level >222 U·L(−1) (L); the total score ranged from 0 to 3 (HAL score). The HAL score discriminated the risk of AE-IIPs with a C-index of 0.62 (95% CI 0.56–0.67); this discrimination was verified in a validation cohort of 402 patients with IIPs with a C-index of 0.67 (95% CI 0.60–0.73). In a combined cohort, the estimated cumulative risks for AE-IIPs at 1, 2, 3, 5 and 10 years were 1.9%, 3.5%, 5.1%, 7.7% and 12.9%, respectively, in the total score 0 group; 4.7%, 8.3%, 12.0%, 17.7% and 28.4%, respectively, in the total score 1 group; and 8.0%, 14.2%, 19.7%, 28.7% and 43.0%, respectively, in the total score ≥2 group. Subgroup analysis revealed that the HAL score was applicable to patients with and without idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis. CONCLUSIONS: The HAL score discriminated the risk of AE-IIPs and could aid in the management of IIPs.