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Public response to government alerts saves lives during Russian invasion of Ukraine

War is the cause of tremendous human suffering. To reduce such harm, governments have developed tools to alert civilians of imminent threats. Whether these systems are effective remains largely unknown. We study the introduction of an innovative smartphone application that notifies civilians of impe...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Van Dijcke, David, Wright, Austin L., Polyak, Mark
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: National Academy of Sciences 2023
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10160968/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37094165
http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2220160120
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author Van Dijcke, David
Wright, Austin L.
Polyak, Mark
author_facet Van Dijcke, David
Wright, Austin L.
Polyak, Mark
author_sort Van Dijcke, David
collection PubMed
description War is the cause of tremendous human suffering. To reduce such harm, governments have developed tools to alert civilians of imminent threats. Whether these systems are effective remains largely unknown. We study the introduction of an innovative smartphone application that notifies civilians of impending military operations developed in coordination with the Ukrainian government after the Russian invasion. We leverage quasi-experimental variation in the timing of more than 3,000 alerts to study civilian sheltering behavior, using high-frequency geolocation pings tied to 17 million mobile devices, 60% of the connected population in Ukraine. We find that, overall, civilians respond sharply to alerts, quickly seeking shelter. These rapid postalert changes in population movement attenuate over time, however, in a manner that cannot be explained by adaptive sheltering behavior or calibration to the signal quality of alerts. Responsiveness is weakest when civilians have been living under an extended state of emergency, consistent with the presence of an alert fatigue effect. Our results suggest that 35 to 45% of observed civilian casualties were avoided because of public responsiveness to the messaging system. Importantly, an additional 8 to 15% of civilian casualties observed during the later periods of the conflict could have been avoided with sustained public responsiveness to government alerts. We provide evidence that increasing civilians’ risk salience through targeted government messaging can increase responsiveness, suggesting a potential policy lever for sustaining public engagement during prolonged episodes of conflict.
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spelling pubmed-101609682023-10-24 Public response to government alerts saves lives during Russian invasion of Ukraine Van Dijcke, David Wright, Austin L. Polyak, Mark Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A Social Sciences War is the cause of tremendous human suffering. To reduce such harm, governments have developed tools to alert civilians of imminent threats. Whether these systems are effective remains largely unknown. We study the introduction of an innovative smartphone application that notifies civilians of impending military operations developed in coordination with the Ukrainian government after the Russian invasion. We leverage quasi-experimental variation in the timing of more than 3,000 alerts to study civilian sheltering behavior, using high-frequency geolocation pings tied to 17 million mobile devices, 60% of the connected population in Ukraine. We find that, overall, civilians respond sharply to alerts, quickly seeking shelter. These rapid postalert changes in population movement attenuate over time, however, in a manner that cannot be explained by adaptive sheltering behavior or calibration to the signal quality of alerts. Responsiveness is weakest when civilians have been living under an extended state of emergency, consistent with the presence of an alert fatigue effect. Our results suggest that 35 to 45% of observed civilian casualties were avoided because of public responsiveness to the messaging system. Importantly, an additional 8 to 15% of civilian casualties observed during the later periods of the conflict could have been avoided with sustained public responsiveness to government alerts. We provide evidence that increasing civilians’ risk salience through targeted government messaging can increase responsiveness, suggesting a potential policy lever for sustaining public engagement during prolonged episodes of conflict. National Academy of Sciences 2023-04-24 2023-05-02 /pmc/articles/PMC10160968/ /pubmed/37094165 http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2220160120 Text en Copyright © 2023 the Author(s). Published by PNAS. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/This article is distributed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives License 4.0 (CC BY-NC-ND) (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) .
spellingShingle Social Sciences
Van Dijcke, David
Wright, Austin L.
Polyak, Mark
Public response to government alerts saves lives during Russian invasion of Ukraine
title Public response to government alerts saves lives during Russian invasion of Ukraine
title_full Public response to government alerts saves lives during Russian invasion of Ukraine
title_fullStr Public response to government alerts saves lives during Russian invasion of Ukraine
title_full_unstemmed Public response to government alerts saves lives during Russian invasion of Ukraine
title_short Public response to government alerts saves lives during Russian invasion of Ukraine
title_sort public response to government alerts saves lives during russian invasion of ukraine
topic Social Sciences
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10160968/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37094165
http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2220160120
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