Does commerce promote theft? A quantitative study from Beijing, China

Commerce, as both an environmental and a social factor, is essential to the study of the causes of urban crimes. This paper aims to comprehensively propose research hypotheses based on these two types of commercial factors and optimise statistical tools with which to analyse commerce’s impact on the level of theft in Beijing. Combining criminal verdicts, census data, points of interest, and information on nighttime lighting, this paper first applies a hierarchical regression model to verify the effectiveness of using commercial environmental and social factors to explain theft statistics and then constructs a structural equation model to analyse the joint influence of multiple commercial factors on those statistics. This paper finds that Beijing’s commerce does not significantly promote theft, verifies the effectiveness of two types of commercial variables and the corresponding Western theories in explaining commerce’s impact on theft in Beijing, and provides empirical data for the study of the causes of theft in a non-Western context.