Development and validation of a prediction model for unsuccessful treatment outcomes in patients with multi-drug resistance tuberculosis

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization has reported that the treatment success rate of multi-drug resistance tuberculosis is approximately 57% globally. Although new drugs such as bedaquiline and linezolid is likely improve the treatment outcome, there are other factors associated with unsuccessful treatment outcome. The factors associated with unsuccessful treatment outcomes have been widely examined, but only a few studies have developed prediction models. We aimed to develop and validate a simple clinical prediction model for unsuccessful treatment outcomes in patients with multi-drug resistance pulmonary tuberculosis (MDR-PTB). METHODS: This retrospective cohort study was performed between January 2017 and December 2019 at a special hospital in Xi’an, China. A total of 446 patients with MDR-PTB were included. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression and multivariate logistic regression were used to select prognostic factors for unsuccessful treatment outcomes. A nomogram was built based on four prognostic factors. Internal validation and leave-one-out cross-validation was used to assess the model. RESULTS: Of the 446 patients with MDR-PTB, 32.9% (147/446) cases had unsuccessful treatment outcomes, and 67.1% had successful outcomes. After LASSO regression and multivariate logistic analyses, no health education, advanced age, being male, and larger extent lung involvement were identified as prognostic factors. These four prognostic factors were used to build the prediction nomograms. The area under the curve of the model was 0.757 (95%CI 0.711 to 0.804), and the concordance index (C-index) was 0.75. For the bootstrap sampling validation, the corrected C-index was 0.747. In the leave-one-out cross-validation, the C-index was 0.765. The slope of the calibration curve was 0.968, which was approximately 1.0. This indicated that the model was accurate in predicting unsuccessful treatment outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: We built a predictive model and established a nomogram for unsuccessful treatment outcomes of multi-drug resistance pulmonary tuberculosis based on baseline characteristics. This predictive model showed good performance and could be used as a tool by clinicians to predict who among their patients will have an unsuccessful treatment outcome. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-023-08193-0.