Local perceptions do not follow rainfall trends: A case study in traditional Marajo island communities (eastern para state, BR)

The great current challenge for the conservation and use of natural resources refers to global climate change, because of its impacts felt in different intensities at global, regional, and local spatial scales. Within the system of environmental protection areas in Brazil, the extractive reserves ensure the sustainable use of natural resources by traditional populations, thus maintaining the cultural and biological aspects of a region. Such populations, being in close management of the surrounding environments, tend to perceive changes in ecological processes that many need for their livelihoods. The use of this perception of local populations in conjunction with academic research evidence has a high potential to allow a whole and systemic view of possible changes in natural phenomena. This study developed an integrated analysis of scientific evidence and local perceptions to understand the variation of precipitation in a community inserted in an extractive reserve in the eastern Amazon. We used 30 years of precipitation data from the Brazilian National Institute of Meteorology - INMET, the Southern Oscillation Index - SOI, and the Atlantic Meridional Mode Index - AMM. Furthermore, we applied a form to measure the population's perception of possible changes in rainfall cycles in the region. The meteorological data indicate that the region of the community has been presenting a rainfall reduction; however, people in the community do not perceive this trend. Although it is public knowledge that the global climate is undergoing changes, a fact noted after the integrating analysis of scientific evidence with local knowledge in Resexmar Soure is that the perceptions of traditional populations often focus on smaller temporal and spatial scale visions.