Changing Trends in the Disease Burden of Cataract and Forecasted Trends in China and Globally from 1990 to 2030

AIM: To explore the trends in the prevalence and disease burden of cataract from 1990 to 2019, evaluate attributable risk factors, and predict trends over the next decade in China and globally. METHODS: Data was obtained from Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. We calculated the age-standardized prevalence rate (ASR) and annual percentage change (EAPC) to show the trends of cataract in China and different regions. We calculated and reported the proportion of disability adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to risk factors by sex in China and different regions. Then, the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) analysis model was also used to predict the prevalence trends from 2020 to 2030 in China and globally. RESULTS: The ASR increased from 867.09 in 1990 to 991.56 in 2019 per 100,000 with an EAPC of 0.88 in China. The age-standardized DALY rate of females was higher than males. DALY rates were correlated to household air pollution from solid fuels, tobacco, high fasting plasma glucose and high body-mass index. The projective model indicates that the ASR for cataracts will rise to 1101.35×10(6) for male and 1616.63×10(6) for female by 2030. CONCLUSION: The trends from 1990 to 2030 suggested that the burden of cataract remains high in China. Maintaining good lifestyle habits such as switching to clean energy, reducing cigar intake, controlling blood glucose and weight can reduce the risk of cataracts. As aging increases, China should pay more attention to cataract-induced low vision and blindness and develop public policies to reduce the disease burden.