Radiomics Outperforms Clinical and Radiologic Signs in Predicting Spontaneous Basal Ganglia Hematoma Expansion: A Pilot Study

Prediction of the hematoma expansion (HE) of spontaneous basal ganglia hematoma (SBH) from the first non-contrast CT can result in better management, which has the potential of improving outcomes. This study has been designed to compare the performance of “Radiomics analysis,” “radiology signs,” and “clinical-laboratory data” for this task. We retrospectively reviewed the electronic medical records for clinical, demographic, and laboratory data in patients with SBH. CT images were reviewed for the presence of radiologic signs, including black-hole, blend, swirl, satellite, and island signs. Radiomic features from the SBH on the first brain CT were extracted, and the most predictive features were selected. Different machine learning models were developed based on clinical, laboratory, and radiology signs and selected Radiomic features to predict hematoma expansion (HE). The dataset used for this analysis included 116 patients with SBH. Among different models and different thresholds to define hematoma expansion (10%, 20%, 25%, 33%, 40%, and 50% volume enlargement thresholds), the Random Forest based on 10 selected Radiomic features achieved the best performance (for 25% hematoma enlargement) with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.9 on the training dataset and 0.89 on the test dataset. The models based on clinical-laboratory and radiology signs had low performance (AUCs about 0.5-0.6).