The factors associated with mortality and progressive disease of nontuberculous mycobacterial lung disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis

This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to comprehensively evaluate the factors associated with mortality and progressive disease in NTM-LD patients. We conducted a literature search to identify the eligible studies, dated between January 1, 2007, and April 12, 2021. Forty-one studies with total 10,452 patients were included. The overall all-cause mortality rate was 20% (95% CI 17–24%). The overall rates of clinical and radiographic progressive disease were 46% (95% CI 39–53%) and 43% (95% CI 31–55%), respectively. Older age, male sex, history of TB, diabetes, chronic heart disease, malignancy, systemic immunosuppression, chronic liver disease, presence of cavity, consolidative radiologic features, acid-fast bacillus (AFB) smear positivity, hypoalbuminemia, anemia, increasing platelet count, high CRP, and high ESR were significantly associated with increased all-cause mortality, whereas increasing body mass index (BMI), hemoptysis, and treatment with rifamycin regimen (in M. xenopi) were significantly associated with decreased all-cause mortality in multivariable analysis. History of TB, Aspergillus co-infection, cough, increased sputum, weight loss, presence of cavity, and AFB smear positivity were significantly associated with increased clinical progression with treatment, while older age and low BMI were significantly associated with decreased clinical progression in multivariable analysis. Older age, interstitial lung disease, presence of cavity, consolidative radiologic feature, anemia, high CRP, and leukocytosis were significantly associated with increased radiographic progression after adjusting for covariates. Older age, history of tuberculosis, presence of cavity, consolidative radiologic features, AFB smear positivity, anemia, and high C-reactive protein were common significant factors associated with the all-cause mortality and clinical or radiographic progressive disease of NTM-LD. These factors are thought to directly affect NTM-LD related mortality. The future prediction models for the prognosis of NTM-LD should be established considering these factors.