A practical method for predicting and analyzing the consequences of ammonium nitrate explosion accidents adjacent to densely populated areas

Several catastrophic ammonium nitrate (AN) explosion accidents have been reported during the last decades. Previous studies have been mainly focused on investigating adverse effects caused by the AN explosion, while only a few systematically analyzed the consequences and impacts of AN explosions. This study collects data from three typical AN explosions (accidental explosion of the US fertilizer plant in 2013; an accidental explosion of China's Tianjin port in 2015, and a recent explosion (2020) of the Beirut port in Lebanon). The consequences of accidental explosions were analyzed by mathematical equations that further provide scientific explanations for AN explosions. Based on the explosives' properties on-site, these accidental explosions were caused by condensed phase explosives. Comparison with the conditions at the explosion site indicated that blast overpressure was the primary factor in the loss of life and damage to the building, while ground shock was a secondary factor. The severity of loss of life and building damage from explosions decreased with increasing distance. These distances could be calculated by the scaling law, which was replaced by the equivalent TNT mass of the explosive and the damage scale's overpressure boundary value. In addition, mapping the damaged area on a map helped in the visual presentation of the consequence assessment. The long-term environmental and ecological impact due to the explosions was also an important issue that could not be ignored. Overall, this study establishes a simple and easy-to-use method to rapidly predict and assess the consequences of an explosion, and provides technical guidance for future emergency response to similar large-scale accidents.