Tumor residue in patients with stage II–IVA nasopharyngeal carcinoma who received intensity-modulated radiation therapy: development and validation of a prediction nomogram integrating postradiotherapy plasma Epstein–Barr virus deoxyribonucleic acid, clinical stage, and radiotherapy dose

BACKGROUND: To develop and validate a predictive nomogram for tumor residue 3–6 months after treatment based on postradiotherapy plasma Epstein–Barr virus (EBV) deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA), clinical stage, and radiotherapy (RT) dose in patients with stage II–IVA nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) treated with intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT). METHODS: In this retrospective study, 1050 eligible patients with stage II–IVA NPC, who completed curative IMRT and underwent pretreatment and postradiotherapy (-7 to +28 days after IMRT) EBV DNA testing, were enrolled from 2012 to 2017. The prognostic value of the residue was explored using Cox regression analysis in patients (n=1050). A nomogram for predicting tumor residues after 3–6 months was developed using logistic regression analyses in the development cohort (n=736) and validated in an internal cohort (n=314). RESULTS: Tumor residue was an independent inferior prognostic factor for 5-year overall survival, progression-free survival, locoregional recurrence-free survival and distant metastasis-free survival (all P<0.001). A prediction nomogram based on postradiotherapy plasma EBV DNA level (0 vs. 1–499 vs. ≥500 copies/ml), clinical stage (II vs. III vs. IVA), and RT dose (68.00–69.96 vs. 70.00–74.00 Gy) estimated the probability of residue development. The nomogram showed better discrimination (area under the curve (AUC): 0.752) than either the clinical stage (0.659) or postradiotherapy EBV DNA level (0.627) alone in the development and validation cohorts (AUC: 0.728). CONCLUSIONS: We developed and validated a nomogram model integrating clinical characteristics at the end of IMRT for predicting whether tumor will residue or not after 3–6 months. Thus, high-risk NPC patients who might benefit from immediate additional intervention could be identified by the model, and the probability of residue can be reduced in the future. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12885-023-10827-0.