Are current machine learning applications comparable to radiologist classification of degenerate and herniated discs and Modic change? A systematic review and meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION: Low back pain is the leading contributor to disability burden globally. It is commonly due to degeneration of the lumbar intervertebral discs (LDD). Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is the current best tool to visualize and diagnose LDD, but places high time demands on clinical radiologists. Automated reading of spine MRIs could improve speed, accuracy, reliability and cost effectiveness in radiology departments. The aim of this review and meta-analysis was to determine if current machine learning algorithms perform well identifying disc degeneration, herniation, bulge and Modic change compared to radiologists. METHODS: A PRISMA systematic review protocol was developed and four electronic databases and reference lists were searched. Strict inclusion and exclusion criteria were defined. A PROBAST risk of bias and applicability analysis was performed. RESULTS: 1350 articles were extracted. Duplicates were removed and title and abstract searching identified original research articles that used machine learning (ML) algorithms to identify disc degeneration, herniation, bulge and Modic change from MRIs. 27 studies were included in the review; 25 and 14 studies were included multi-variate and bivariate meta-analysis, respectively. Studies used machine learning algorithms to assess LDD, disc herniation, bulge and Modic change. Models using deep learning, support vector machine, k-nearest neighbors, random forest and naïve Bayes algorithms were included. Meta-analyses found no differences in algorithm or classification performance. When algorithms were tested in replication or external validation studies, they did not perform as well as when assessed in developmental studies. Data augmentation improved algorithm performance when compared to models used with smaller datasets, there were no performance differences between augmented data and large datasets. DISCUSSION: This review highlights several shortcomings of current approaches, including few validation attempts or use of large sample sizes. To the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first systematic review to explore this topic. We suggest the utilization of deep learning coupled with semi- or unsupervised learning approaches. Use of all information contained in MRI data will improve accuracy. Clear and complete reporting of study design, statistics and results will improve the reliability and quality of published literature. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00586-023-07718-0.