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Candidate historical events for the emergence of Human Coronavirus OC43: A critical reassessment of the molecular evidence

The “Russian Influenza”-coronavirus theory (RICT) proposes that the pandemic of 1889–1892, conventionally regarded as an influenza pandemic, was caused by the emergence of human coronavirus OC43 (HCoV-OC43) as a zoonosis of bovine coronavirus (BCoV). RICT is based on a Bayesian phylogenetic calculat...

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Autores principales: Shaw, Brandon, Gatherer, Derek
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2023
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10166493/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37155606
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0285481
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author Shaw, Brandon
Gatherer, Derek
author_facet Shaw, Brandon
Gatherer, Derek
author_sort Shaw, Brandon
collection PubMed
description The “Russian Influenza”-coronavirus theory (RICT) proposes that the pandemic of 1889–1892, conventionally regarded as an influenza pandemic, was caused by the emergence of human coronavirus OC43 (HCoV-OC43) as a zoonosis of bovine coronavirus (BCoV). RICT is based on a Bayesian phylogenetic calculation of the date of the most recent common ancestor (MRCA) of HCoV-OC43 and BCoV. The theory also draws on comparison of both symptoms and some epidemiological parameters of the best studied coronavirus pandemic, i.e. COVID-19, with those reported in 1889–1892. The case is completed with circumstantial evidence involving a panzoonotic among cattle in the decade prior to the “Russian Influenza”, with characteristics suggesting it may have been caused by BCoV. In this paper, we review the Bayesian phylogenetic evidence for RICT, replicating previous studies and adding our own, in each case critically reviewing the suitability of the datasets used and the parameters applied. We conclude that the most probable date for the MRCA of HCoV-OC43 and BCoV is 1898–1902. This is a decade too late for compatibility with RICT but happens to coincide with another serious outbreak of respiratory illness, reported in both the USA and the UK, in the winter of 1899–1900.
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spelling pubmed-101664932023-05-09 Candidate historical events for the emergence of Human Coronavirus OC43: A critical reassessment of the molecular evidence Shaw, Brandon Gatherer, Derek PLoS One Research Article The “Russian Influenza”-coronavirus theory (RICT) proposes that the pandemic of 1889–1892, conventionally regarded as an influenza pandemic, was caused by the emergence of human coronavirus OC43 (HCoV-OC43) as a zoonosis of bovine coronavirus (BCoV). RICT is based on a Bayesian phylogenetic calculation of the date of the most recent common ancestor (MRCA) of HCoV-OC43 and BCoV. The theory also draws on comparison of both symptoms and some epidemiological parameters of the best studied coronavirus pandemic, i.e. COVID-19, with those reported in 1889–1892. The case is completed with circumstantial evidence involving a panzoonotic among cattle in the decade prior to the “Russian Influenza”, with characteristics suggesting it may have been caused by BCoV. In this paper, we review the Bayesian phylogenetic evidence for RICT, replicating previous studies and adding our own, in each case critically reviewing the suitability of the datasets used and the parameters applied. We conclude that the most probable date for the MRCA of HCoV-OC43 and BCoV is 1898–1902. This is a decade too late for compatibility with RICT but happens to coincide with another serious outbreak of respiratory illness, reported in both the USA and the UK, in the winter of 1899–1900. Public Library of Science 2023-05-08 /pmc/articles/PMC10166493/ /pubmed/37155606 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0285481 Text en © 2023 Shaw, Gatherer https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Shaw, Brandon
Gatherer, Derek
Candidate historical events for the emergence of Human Coronavirus OC43: A critical reassessment of the molecular evidence
title Candidate historical events for the emergence of Human Coronavirus OC43: A critical reassessment of the molecular evidence
title_full Candidate historical events for the emergence of Human Coronavirus OC43: A critical reassessment of the molecular evidence
title_fullStr Candidate historical events for the emergence of Human Coronavirus OC43: A critical reassessment of the molecular evidence
title_full_unstemmed Candidate historical events for the emergence of Human Coronavirus OC43: A critical reassessment of the molecular evidence
title_short Candidate historical events for the emergence of Human Coronavirus OC43: A critical reassessment of the molecular evidence
title_sort candidate historical events for the emergence of human coronavirus oc43: a critical reassessment of the molecular evidence
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10166493/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37155606
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0285481
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