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Recursive expectations approach in policymaking

The primary contribution of modern economics to policy analysis may be the recognition of the crucial role of expectations in policy intervention. The essence of expectations is to think about others’ thinking. We argue that policymakers need recursive thinking, that is, the ability to think about t...

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Autor principal: Kobayashi, Keiichiro
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Springer Nature Singapore 2023
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10169135/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s42495-023-00108-w
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author Kobayashi, Keiichiro
author_facet Kobayashi, Keiichiro
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description The primary contribution of modern economics to policy analysis may be the recognition of the crucial role of expectations in policy intervention. The essence of expectations is to think about others’ thinking. We argue that policymakers need recursive thinking, that is, the ability to think about thinking and review three policy episodes related to the lack of recursive thinking. We see that the disciplinary divide or the limited scope of recursive thinking on the side of policymakers can cause huge damage to social welfare in times of crisis. Finally, we consider two examples of future agendas in the recursive approach.
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spelling pubmed-101691352023-05-11 Recursive expectations approach in policymaking Kobayashi, Keiichiro IJEPS Special Feature: Survey Article The primary contribution of modern economics to policy analysis may be the recognition of the crucial role of expectations in policy intervention. The essence of expectations is to think about others’ thinking. We argue that policymakers need recursive thinking, that is, the ability to think about thinking and review three policy episodes related to the lack of recursive thinking. We see that the disciplinary divide or the limited scope of recursive thinking on the side of policymakers can cause huge damage to social welfare in times of crisis. Finally, we consider two examples of future agendas in the recursive approach. Springer Nature Singapore 2023-05-09 /pmc/articles/PMC10169135/ http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s42495-023-00108-w Text en © The Author(s) 2023 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) .
spellingShingle Special Feature: Survey Article
Kobayashi, Keiichiro
Recursive expectations approach in policymaking
title Recursive expectations approach in policymaking
title_full Recursive expectations approach in policymaking
title_fullStr Recursive expectations approach in policymaking
title_full_unstemmed Recursive expectations approach in policymaking
title_short Recursive expectations approach in policymaking
title_sort recursive expectations approach in policymaking
topic Special Feature: Survey Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10169135/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s42495-023-00108-w
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