Validated risk prediction models for outcomes of acute kidney injury: a systematic review

BACKGROUND: Acute Kidney Injury (AKI) is frequently seen in hospitalized and critically ill patients. Studies have shown that AKI is a risk factor for the development of acute kidney disease (AKD), chronic kidney disease (CKD), and mortality. METHODS: A systematic review is performed on validated risk prediction models for developing poor renal outcomes after AKI scenarios. Medline, EMBASE, Cochrane, and Web of Science were searched for articles that developed or validated a prediction model. Moreover, studies that report prediction models for recovery after AKI also have been included. This review was registered with PROSPERO (CRD42022303197). RESULT: We screened 25,812 potentially relevant abstracts. Among the 149 remaining articles in the first selection, eight met the inclusion criteria. All of the included models developed more than one prediction model with different variables. The models included between 3 and 28 independent variables and c-statistics ranged from 0.55 to 1. CONCLUSION: Few validated risk prediction models targeting the development of renal insufficiency after experiencing AKI have been developed, most of which are based on simple statistical or machine learning models. While some of these models have been externally validated, none of these models are available in a way that can be used or evaluated in a clinical setting.