Empirical analysis on the impact of trust in government, purposes of GM crops, and farmers’ expectations on the delayed commercialization of GM crops in China———Based on Xinjiang and Guangdong survey samples

GM crops, as a widely researched and applied biotechnology, hold significant strategic and practical implications for promoting the commercialization of GM crops in China, driving agricultural industry upgrading, and fostering economic and social development. However, despite their potential benefits, the commercialization of GM crops in China has been consistently delayed. Therefore, this study aims to explore the trust relationship between the government and the public in the field of genetically modified organisms and the heterogeneous impacts generated at the production and consumption ends. We primarily focus on insect-resistant cotton and genetically modified papaya as representatives and base our research on survey data from Xinjiang and Guangdong. By employing factor analysis and establishing multiple Probit models with government trust, crop purposes, and farmer expectations as independent variables, and the commercialization of GM crops as the dependent variable, we conduct two sets of empirical analyses. The study finds that government trust has a more significant impact on consumer concerns about whether to consume GM products than on producers, who prioritize farmers’ desire for agricultural product profitability. Age and education levels also influence the public’s acceptance of planting GM crops, but the effects are not as significant as the core variables mentioned earlier. Based on this, we conclude that consumers and farmers have different positions and contradictions in the specific scenario of delayed GM commercialization in China. In this context, this paper argues that diversified strategies should be adopted to address the issue of commercialization of GM crops in China.