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A modelling assessment of short- and medium-term risks of programme interruptions for gambiense human African trypanosomiasis in the DRC

Gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT) is a deadly vector-borne, neglected tropical disease found in West and Central Africa targeted for elimination of transmission (EoT) by 2030. The recent pandemic has illustrated how it can be important to quantify the impact that unplanned disruption to...

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Autores principales: Huang, Ching-I, Crump, Ronald E., Crowley, Emily H., Hope, Andrew, Bessell, Paul R., Shampa, Chansy, Mwamba Miaka, Erick, Rock, Kat S.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2023
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10171604/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37115809
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0011299
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author Huang, Ching-I
Crump, Ronald E.
Crowley, Emily H.
Hope, Andrew
Bessell, Paul R.
Shampa, Chansy
Mwamba Miaka, Erick
Rock, Kat S.
author_facet Huang, Ching-I
Crump, Ronald E.
Crowley, Emily H.
Hope, Andrew
Bessell, Paul R.
Shampa, Chansy
Mwamba Miaka, Erick
Rock, Kat S.
author_sort Huang, Ching-I
collection PubMed
description Gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT) is a deadly vector-borne, neglected tropical disease found in West and Central Africa targeted for elimination of transmission (EoT) by 2030. The recent pandemic has illustrated how it can be important to quantify the impact that unplanned disruption to programme activities may have in achieving EoT. We used a previously developed model of gHAT fitted to data from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the country with the highest global case burden, to explore how interruptions to intervention activities, due to e.g. COVID-19, Ebola or political instability, could impact progress towards EoT and gHAT burden. We simulated transmission and reporting dynamics in 38 regions within Kwilu, Mai Ndombe and Kwango provinces under six interruption scenarios lasting for nine or twenty-one months. Included in the interruption scenarios are the cessation of active screening in all scenarios and a reduction in passive detection rates and a delay or suspension of vector control deployments in some scenarios. Our results indicate that, even under the most extreme 21-month interruption scenario, EoT is not predicted to be delayed by more than one additional year compared to the length of the interruption. If existing vector control deployments continue, we predict no delay in achieving EoT even when both active and passive screening activities are interrupted. If passive screening remains as functional as in 2019, we expect a marginal negative impact on transmission, however this depends on the strength of passive screening in each health zone. We predict a pronounced increase in additional gHAT disease burden (morbidity and mortality) in many health zones if both active and passive screening were interrupted compared to the interruption of active screening alone. The ability to continue existing vector control during medical activity interruption is also predicted to avert a moderate proportion of disease burden.
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spelling pubmed-101716042023-05-11 A modelling assessment of short- and medium-term risks of programme interruptions for gambiense human African trypanosomiasis in the DRC Huang, Ching-I Crump, Ronald E. Crowley, Emily H. Hope, Andrew Bessell, Paul R. Shampa, Chansy Mwamba Miaka, Erick Rock, Kat S. PLoS Negl Trop Dis Research Article Gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT) is a deadly vector-borne, neglected tropical disease found in West and Central Africa targeted for elimination of transmission (EoT) by 2030. The recent pandemic has illustrated how it can be important to quantify the impact that unplanned disruption to programme activities may have in achieving EoT. We used a previously developed model of gHAT fitted to data from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the country with the highest global case burden, to explore how interruptions to intervention activities, due to e.g. COVID-19, Ebola or political instability, could impact progress towards EoT and gHAT burden. We simulated transmission and reporting dynamics in 38 regions within Kwilu, Mai Ndombe and Kwango provinces under six interruption scenarios lasting for nine or twenty-one months. Included in the interruption scenarios are the cessation of active screening in all scenarios and a reduction in passive detection rates and a delay or suspension of vector control deployments in some scenarios. Our results indicate that, even under the most extreme 21-month interruption scenario, EoT is not predicted to be delayed by more than one additional year compared to the length of the interruption. If existing vector control deployments continue, we predict no delay in achieving EoT even when both active and passive screening activities are interrupted. If passive screening remains as functional as in 2019, we expect a marginal negative impact on transmission, however this depends on the strength of passive screening in each health zone. We predict a pronounced increase in additional gHAT disease burden (morbidity and mortality) in many health zones if both active and passive screening were interrupted compared to the interruption of active screening alone. The ability to continue existing vector control during medical activity interruption is also predicted to avert a moderate proportion of disease burden. Public Library of Science 2023-04-28 /pmc/articles/PMC10171604/ /pubmed/37115809 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0011299 Text en © 2023 Huang et al https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Huang, Ching-I
Crump, Ronald E.
Crowley, Emily H.
Hope, Andrew
Bessell, Paul R.
Shampa, Chansy
Mwamba Miaka, Erick
Rock, Kat S.
A modelling assessment of short- and medium-term risks of programme interruptions for gambiense human African trypanosomiasis in the DRC
title A modelling assessment of short- and medium-term risks of programme interruptions for gambiense human African trypanosomiasis in the DRC
title_full A modelling assessment of short- and medium-term risks of programme interruptions for gambiense human African trypanosomiasis in the DRC
title_fullStr A modelling assessment of short- and medium-term risks of programme interruptions for gambiense human African trypanosomiasis in the DRC
title_full_unstemmed A modelling assessment of short- and medium-term risks of programme interruptions for gambiense human African trypanosomiasis in the DRC
title_short A modelling assessment of short- and medium-term risks of programme interruptions for gambiense human African trypanosomiasis in the DRC
title_sort modelling assessment of short- and medium-term risks of programme interruptions for gambiense human african trypanosomiasis in the drc
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10171604/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37115809
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0011299
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