A temporal assessment of risk of non-indigenous species introduction by ballast water to Canadian coastal waters based on environmental similarity

The environmental similarity scores between source and recipient locations are essential in ballast water risk assessment (BWRA) models used to estimate the potential for non-indigenous species (NIS) introduction, survival, and establishment, and to guide management strategies aiming to minimize biodiversity loss and economic impacts. Previous BWRA models incorporate annual-scale environmental data, which may overlook seasonal variability. In this study, temporal variation in sea surface temperature and salinity data were examined at global ports, and the influence of this variation on environmental distance calculations (and corresponding risk of NIS) was examined for ballast water discharges in Canada by comparing outputs from monthly and annual scale assessments in a BWRA model. Except for some outliers in the Pacific region, the environmental distances based on monthly scale data generally become smaller in all regions, demonstrating that the model using annual decadal average environmental data to inform environmental matching can underestimate risk of NIS survival and establishment in comparison to monthly data. The results of this study suggest future evaluations incorporating the date of ballast water uptake and discharge can provide a more sensitive assessment of risk reflecting seasonal variability compared to an annual average risk model.