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Implications of war on the food, beverage, and tobacco industry in South Korea

The Food, Beverage & Tobacco (F&B) industry is an essential sector in the competitive economy. Procurement of production factors mainly depends on sales forecasting and the supply chain of raw materials. However, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has jeopardized the global supply chain...

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Autores principales: Bhadra, Madhusmita, Gul, M. Junaid, Choi, Gyu Sang
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Palgrave Macmillan UK 2023
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10175896/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37200567
http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/s41599-023-01659-1
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author Bhadra, Madhusmita
Gul, M. Junaid
Choi, Gyu Sang
author_facet Bhadra, Madhusmita
Gul, M. Junaid
Choi, Gyu Sang
author_sort Bhadra, Madhusmita
collection PubMed
description The Food, Beverage & Tobacco (F&B) industry is an essential sector in the competitive economy. Procurement of production factors mainly depends on sales forecasting and the supply chain of raw materials. However, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has jeopardized the global supply chain. As the conflict worsened, the world faced a food crisis, which was already a significant challenge due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Understanding how conflict-related disruptions in global food markets might affect the stock return of the F&B industry of South Korea, this study forecasts the stock returns on the KOSDAQ F&B sector. This paper highlights that the conflict resulted in immediate and far-reaching consequences on the global food supply chain and future crop harvesting in South Korea. As numerous algorithms have been widely used in predicting stock market returns, we use Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model for the prediction. Using daily returns from the KOSDAQ F&B industry from January 1999 to October 2022, the study proposes an ARIMA (2,2,3) model to forecast future movements of the stock returns. With an RMSE of 0.012, the prediction performance holds good using the ARIMA model. The results show a negative trend observed in the F&B sector returns for a few months, implying that sector stock returns decline as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine becomes more pronounced. This study also suggests that South Korea has massive scope to stabilize the demand for healthy, safe food, give more attention to domestic agribusiness, and make itself a self-sufficient agri-economy.
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spelling pubmed-101758962023-05-14 Implications of war on the food, beverage, and tobacco industry in South Korea Bhadra, Madhusmita Gul, M. Junaid Choi, Gyu Sang Humanit Soc Sci Commun Article The Food, Beverage & Tobacco (F&B) industry is an essential sector in the competitive economy. Procurement of production factors mainly depends on sales forecasting and the supply chain of raw materials. However, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has jeopardized the global supply chain. As the conflict worsened, the world faced a food crisis, which was already a significant challenge due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Understanding how conflict-related disruptions in global food markets might affect the stock return of the F&B industry of South Korea, this study forecasts the stock returns on the KOSDAQ F&B sector. This paper highlights that the conflict resulted in immediate and far-reaching consequences on the global food supply chain and future crop harvesting in South Korea. As numerous algorithms have been widely used in predicting stock market returns, we use Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model for the prediction. Using daily returns from the KOSDAQ F&B industry from January 1999 to October 2022, the study proposes an ARIMA (2,2,3) model to forecast future movements of the stock returns. With an RMSE of 0.012, the prediction performance holds good using the ARIMA model. The results show a negative trend observed in the F&B sector returns for a few months, implying that sector stock returns decline as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine becomes more pronounced. This study also suggests that South Korea has massive scope to stabilize the demand for healthy, safe food, give more attention to domestic agribusiness, and make itself a self-sufficient agri-economy. Palgrave Macmillan UK 2023-05-12 2023 /pmc/articles/PMC10175896/ /pubmed/37200567 http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/s41599-023-01659-1 Text en © The Author(s) 2023 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) .
spellingShingle Article
Bhadra, Madhusmita
Gul, M. Junaid
Choi, Gyu Sang
Implications of war on the food, beverage, and tobacco industry in South Korea
title Implications of war on the food, beverage, and tobacco industry in South Korea
title_full Implications of war on the food, beverage, and tobacco industry in South Korea
title_fullStr Implications of war on the food, beverage, and tobacco industry in South Korea
title_full_unstemmed Implications of war on the food, beverage, and tobacco industry in South Korea
title_short Implications of war on the food, beverage, and tobacco industry in South Korea
title_sort implications of war on the food, beverage, and tobacco industry in south korea
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10175896/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37200567
http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/s41599-023-01659-1
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