Early Expected Discharge Date Accuracy During Hospitalization: A Multivariable Analysis

INTRODUCTION: Accurate estimation of an expected discharge date (EDD) early during hospitalization impacts clinical operations and discharge planning. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective study of patients discharged from six general medicine units at an academic medical center in Boston, MA from January 2017 to June 2018. We retrieved all EDD entries and patient, encounter, unit, and provider data from the electronic health record (EHR), and public weather data. We excluded patients who expired, discharged against medical advice, or lacked an EDD within the first 24 h of hospitalization. We used generalized estimating equations in a multivariable logistic regression analysis to model early EDD accuracy (an accurate EDD entered within 24 h of admission), adjusting for all covariates and clustering by patient. We similarly constructed a secondary multivariable model using covariates present upon admission alone. RESULTS: Of 3917 eligible hospitalizations, 890 (22.7%) had at least one accurate early EDD entry. Factors significantly positively associated (OR > 1) with an accurate early EDD included clinician-entered EDD, admit day and discharge day during the work week, and teaching clinical units. Factors significantly negatively associated (OR < 1) with an accurate early EDD included Elixhauser Comorbidity Index ≥ 11 and length of stay of two or more days. C-statistics for the primary and secondary multivariable models were 0.75 and 0.60, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: EDDs entered within the first 24 h of admission were often inaccurate. While several variables from the EHR were associated with accurate early EDD entries, few would be useful for prospective prediction.