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A risk score to predict 30-day hospital readmission rate in cirrhotic patients with spontaneous bacterial peritonitis
BACKGROUND AND AIM: There is lack of 30-day hospital readmission prediction score in patients with liver cirrhosis and SBP. The aim of this study is to recognize factors capable of predicting 30-day readmission and to develop a readmission risk score in patients with SBP. METHODS: This study prospec...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
BioMed Central
2023
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10176908/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37173752 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s40001-023-01126-2 |
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author | Mousa, Nasser Abdel-Razik, Ahmed Elbaz, Sherif Salah, Mohamed Abdelaziz, Mohammed Habib, Alaa Deib, Ahmed Gadallah, Abdel-Naser El-wakeel, Niveen Eldars, Waleed effat, Narmin El-Emam, Ola Taha, Khaled Elmetwalli, Alaa Mousa, Eman Elhammady, Dina |
author_facet | Mousa, Nasser Abdel-Razik, Ahmed Elbaz, Sherif Salah, Mohamed Abdelaziz, Mohammed Habib, Alaa Deib, Ahmed Gadallah, Abdel-Naser El-wakeel, Niveen Eldars, Waleed effat, Narmin El-Emam, Ola Taha, Khaled Elmetwalli, Alaa Mousa, Eman Elhammady, Dina |
author_sort | Mousa, Nasser |
collection | PubMed |
description | BACKGROUND AND AIM: There is lack of 30-day hospital readmission prediction score in patients with liver cirrhosis and SBP. The aim of this study is to recognize factors capable of predicting 30-day readmission and to develop a readmission risk score in patients with SBP. METHODS: This study prospectively examined the 30-day hospital readmission for patients previously discharged with a diagnosis of SBP. Based on index hospitalization variables, a multivariable logistic regression model was implemented to recognize predictors of patient hospital readmission within 30 days. Consequently, Mousa readmission risk score was established to predict 30-day hospital readmission. RESULTS: Of 475 patients hospitalized with SBP, 400 patients were included in this study. The 30-day readmission rate was 26.5%, with 16.03% of patients readmitted with SBP. Age ≥ 60, MELD > 15, serum bilirubin > 1.5 mg/dL, creatinine > 1.2 mg/dL, INR > 1.4, albumin < 2.5 g/dL, platelets count ≤ 74 (10(3)/dL) were found to be independent predictors of 30-day readmission. Incorporating these predictors, Mousa readmission score was established to predict 30-day patient readmissions. ROC curve analysis demonstrated that at a cutoff value ≥ 4, Mousa score had optimum discriminative power for predicting the readmission in SBP with sensitivity 90.6% and specificity 92.9%. However, at cutoff value ≥ 6 the sensitivity and specificity were 77.4% and 99.7%, respectively, while a cutoff value ≥ 2 had sensitivity of 99.1% and specificity of 31.6%. CONCLUSIONS: The 30-day readmission rate of SBP was 25.6%. With the suggested simple risk assessment Mousa score, patients at high risk for early readmission can be easily identified so as to possibly prevent poorer outcomes. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40001-023-01126-2. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-10176908 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2023 |
publisher | BioMed Central |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-101769082023-05-13 A risk score to predict 30-day hospital readmission rate in cirrhotic patients with spontaneous bacterial peritonitis Mousa, Nasser Abdel-Razik, Ahmed Elbaz, Sherif Salah, Mohamed Abdelaziz, Mohammed Habib, Alaa Deib, Ahmed Gadallah, Abdel-Naser El-wakeel, Niveen Eldars, Waleed effat, Narmin El-Emam, Ola Taha, Khaled Elmetwalli, Alaa Mousa, Eman Elhammady, Dina Eur J Med Res Research BACKGROUND AND AIM: There is lack of 30-day hospital readmission prediction score in patients with liver cirrhosis and SBP. The aim of this study is to recognize factors capable of predicting 30-day readmission and to develop a readmission risk score in patients with SBP. METHODS: This study prospectively examined the 30-day hospital readmission for patients previously discharged with a diagnosis of SBP. Based on index hospitalization variables, a multivariable logistic regression model was implemented to recognize predictors of patient hospital readmission within 30 days. Consequently, Mousa readmission risk score was established to predict 30-day hospital readmission. RESULTS: Of 475 patients hospitalized with SBP, 400 patients were included in this study. The 30-day readmission rate was 26.5%, with 16.03% of patients readmitted with SBP. Age ≥ 60, MELD > 15, serum bilirubin > 1.5 mg/dL, creatinine > 1.2 mg/dL, INR > 1.4, albumin < 2.5 g/dL, platelets count ≤ 74 (10(3)/dL) were found to be independent predictors of 30-day readmission. Incorporating these predictors, Mousa readmission score was established to predict 30-day patient readmissions. ROC curve analysis demonstrated that at a cutoff value ≥ 4, Mousa score had optimum discriminative power for predicting the readmission in SBP with sensitivity 90.6% and specificity 92.9%. However, at cutoff value ≥ 6 the sensitivity and specificity were 77.4% and 99.7%, respectively, while a cutoff value ≥ 2 had sensitivity of 99.1% and specificity of 31.6%. CONCLUSIONS: The 30-day readmission rate of SBP was 25.6%. With the suggested simple risk assessment Mousa score, patients at high risk for early readmission can be easily identified so as to possibly prevent poorer outcomes. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40001-023-01126-2. BioMed Central 2023-05-12 /pmc/articles/PMC10176908/ /pubmed/37173752 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s40001-023-01126-2 Text en © The Author(s) 2023, corrected publication 2023 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) ) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated in a credit line to the data. |
spellingShingle | Research Mousa, Nasser Abdel-Razik, Ahmed Elbaz, Sherif Salah, Mohamed Abdelaziz, Mohammed Habib, Alaa Deib, Ahmed Gadallah, Abdel-Naser El-wakeel, Niveen Eldars, Waleed effat, Narmin El-Emam, Ola Taha, Khaled Elmetwalli, Alaa Mousa, Eman Elhammady, Dina A risk score to predict 30-day hospital readmission rate in cirrhotic patients with spontaneous bacterial peritonitis |
title | A risk score to predict 30-day hospital readmission rate in cirrhotic patients with spontaneous bacterial peritonitis |
title_full | A risk score to predict 30-day hospital readmission rate in cirrhotic patients with spontaneous bacterial peritonitis |
title_fullStr | A risk score to predict 30-day hospital readmission rate in cirrhotic patients with spontaneous bacterial peritonitis |
title_full_unstemmed | A risk score to predict 30-day hospital readmission rate in cirrhotic patients with spontaneous bacterial peritonitis |
title_short | A risk score to predict 30-day hospital readmission rate in cirrhotic patients with spontaneous bacterial peritonitis |
title_sort | risk score to predict 30-day hospital readmission rate in cirrhotic patients with spontaneous bacterial peritonitis |
topic | Research |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10176908/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37173752 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s40001-023-01126-2 |
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