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Mortality Risk of Hot Nights: A Nationwide Population-Based Retrospective Study in Japan

BACKGROUND: The health effects of heat are well documented; however, limited information is available regarding the health risks of hot nights. Hot nights have become more common, increasing at a faster rate than hot days, making it urgent to understand the characteristics of the hot night risk. OBJ...

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Autores principales: Kim, Satbyul Estella, Hashizume, Masahiro, Armstrong, Ben, Gasparrini, Antonio, Oka, Kazutaka, Hijioka, Yasuaki, Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana M., Honda, Yasushi
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Environmental Health Perspectives 2023
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10181675/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37172196
http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP11444
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author Kim, Satbyul Estella
Hashizume, Masahiro
Armstrong, Ben
Gasparrini, Antonio
Oka, Kazutaka
Hijioka, Yasuaki
Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana M.
Honda, Yasushi
author_facet Kim, Satbyul Estella
Hashizume, Masahiro
Armstrong, Ben
Gasparrini, Antonio
Oka, Kazutaka
Hijioka, Yasuaki
Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana M.
Honda, Yasushi
author_sort Kim, Satbyul Estella
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: The health effects of heat are well documented; however, limited information is available regarding the health risks of hot nights. Hot nights have become more common, increasing at a faster rate than hot days, making it urgent to understand the characteristics of the hot night risk. OBJECTIVES: We estimated the effects of hot nights on the cause- and location-specific mortality in a nationwide assessment over 43 y (1973–2015) using a unified analytical framework in the 47 prefectures of Japan. METHODS: Hot nights were defined as days with a) minimum temperature [Formula: see text] ([Formula: see text]) and b) minimum temperature [Formula: see text] percentile ([Formula: see text]) for the prefecture. We conducted a time-series analysis using a two-stage approach during the hot night occurrence season (April–November). For each prefecture, we estimated associations between hot nights and mortality controlling for potential confounders including daily mean temperature. We then used a random-effects meta-analytic model to estimate the pooled cumulative association. RESULTS: Overall, 24,721,226 deaths were included in this study. Nationally, all-cause mortality increased by 9%–10% [[Formula: see text] relative risk [Formula: see text] , 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.08, 1.10; [Formula: see text] [Formula: see text] , 95% CI: 1.09, 1.11] during hot nights in comparison with nonhot nights. All 11 cause-specific mortalities were strongly associated with hot nights, and the corresponding associations appeared to be acute and lasted a few weeks, depending on the cause of death. The strength of the association between hot nights and mortality varied among prefectures. We found a higher mortality risk from hot nights in early summer in comparison with the late summer in all regions. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings support the evidence of mortality impacts from hot nights in excess of that explicable by daily mean temperature and have implications useful for establishing public health policy and research efforts estimating the health effects of climate change. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP11444
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spelling pubmed-101816752023-05-13 Mortality Risk of Hot Nights: A Nationwide Population-Based Retrospective Study in Japan Kim, Satbyul Estella Hashizume, Masahiro Armstrong, Ben Gasparrini, Antonio Oka, Kazutaka Hijioka, Yasuaki Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana M. Honda, Yasushi Environ Health Perspect Research BACKGROUND: The health effects of heat are well documented; however, limited information is available regarding the health risks of hot nights. Hot nights have become more common, increasing at a faster rate than hot days, making it urgent to understand the characteristics of the hot night risk. OBJECTIVES: We estimated the effects of hot nights on the cause- and location-specific mortality in a nationwide assessment over 43 y (1973–2015) using a unified analytical framework in the 47 prefectures of Japan. METHODS: Hot nights were defined as days with a) minimum temperature [Formula: see text] ([Formula: see text]) and b) minimum temperature [Formula: see text] percentile ([Formula: see text]) for the prefecture. We conducted a time-series analysis using a two-stage approach during the hot night occurrence season (April–November). For each prefecture, we estimated associations between hot nights and mortality controlling for potential confounders including daily mean temperature. We then used a random-effects meta-analytic model to estimate the pooled cumulative association. RESULTS: Overall, 24,721,226 deaths were included in this study. Nationally, all-cause mortality increased by 9%–10% [[Formula: see text] relative risk [Formula: see text] , 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.08, 1.10; [Formula: see text] [Formula: see text] , 95% CI: 1.09, 1.11] during hot nights in comparison with nonhot nights. All 11 cause-specific mortalities were strongly associated with hot nights, and the corresponding associations appeared to be acute and lasted a few weeks, depending on the cause of death. The strength of the association between hot nights and mortality varied among prefectures. We found a higher mortality risk from hot nights in early summer in comparison with the late summer in all regions. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings support the evidence of mortality impacts from hot nights in excess of that explicable by daily mean temperature and have implications useful for establishing public health policy and research efforts estimating the health effects of climate change. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP11444 Environmental Health Perspectives 2023-05-12 /pmc/articles/PMC10181675/ /pubmed/37172196 http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP11444 Text en https://ehp.niehs.nih.gov/about-ehp/licenseEHP is an open-access journal published with support from the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, National Institutes of Health. All content is public domain unless otherwise noted.
spellingShingle Research
Kim, Satbyul Estella
Hashizume, Masahiro
Armstrong, Ben
Gasparrini, Antonio
Oka, Kazutaka
Hijioka, Yasuaki
Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana M.
Honda, Yasushi
Mortality Risk of Hot Nights: A Nationwide Population-Based Retrospective Study in Japan
title Mortality Risk of Hot Nights: A Nationwide Population-Based Retrospective Study in Japan
title_full Mortality Risk of Hot Nights: A Nationwide Population-Based Retrospective Study in Japan
title_fullStr Mortality Risk of Hot Nights: A Nationwide Population-Based Retrospective Study in Japan
title_full_unstemmed Mortality Risk of Hot Nights: A Nationwide Population-Based Retrospective Study in Japan
title_short Mortality Risk of Hot Nights: A Nationwide Population-Based Retrospective Study in Japan
title_sort mortality risk of hot nights: a nationwide population-based retrospective study in japan
topic Research
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10181675/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37172196
http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP11444
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