Preoperative prediction model for macrotrabecular-massive hepatocellular carcinoma based on contrast-enhanced CT and clinical characteristics: a retrospective study

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the predictive value of contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CECT) imaging features and clinical factors in identifying the macrotrabecular-massive (MTM) subtype of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) preoperatively. METHODS: This retrospective study included 101 consecutive patients with pathology-proven HCC (35 MTM subtype vs. 66 non-MTM subtype) who underwent liver surgery and preoperative CECT scans from January 2017 to November 2021. The imaging features were evaluated by two board-certified abdominal radiologists independently. The clinical characteristics and imaging findings were compared between the MTM and non-MTM subtypes. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to investigate the association of clinical-radiological variables and MTM-HCCs and develop a predictive model. Subgroup analysis was also performed in BCLC 0-A stage patients. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves analysis was used to determine the optimal cutoff values and the area under the curve (AUC) was employed to evaluate predictive performance. RESULTS: Intratumor hypoenhancement (odds ratio [OR] = 2.724; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.033, 7.467; p = .045), tumors without enhancing capsules (OR = 3.274; 95% CI: 1.209, 9.755; p = .03), high serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) (≥ 228 ng/mL, OR = 4.101; 95% CI: 1.523, 11.722; p = .006) and high hemoglobin (≥ 130.5 g/L; OR = 3.943; 95% CI: 1.466, 11.710; p = .009) were independent predictors for MTM-HCCs. The clinical-radiologic (CR) model showed the best predictive performance, achieving an AUC of 0.793, sensitivity of 62.9% and specificity of 81.8%. The CR model also effectively identify MTM-HCCs in early-stage (BCLC 0-A stage) patients. CONCLUSION: Combining CECT imaging features and clinical characteristics is an effective method for preoperatively identifying MTM-HCCs, even in early-stage patients. The CR model has high predictive performance and could potentially help guide decision-making regarding aggressive therapies in MTM-HCC patients.