Cost-effectiveness of first-line immunotherapy combinations with or without chemotherapy for advanced non–small cell lung cancer: a modelling approach

BACKGROUND: Many studies have explored the cost-effectiveness of immunotherapy versus chemotherapy alone. However, there is paucity of evidence on direct pharmacoeconomic studies related to immunotherapy combinations. Thus, we aimed at assessing the economic outcomes of first-line immunotherapy combinations in the treatment of advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) from the Chinese health care perspective. METHODS: The mutual hazard ratios (HRs) of ten immunotherapy combinations and one chemotherapy regimen for the overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) were obtained from a network meta-analysis. Based on proportional hazard (PH) assumption, adjusted OS and PFS curves were established to make the effects comparable. With the parameters of cost and utility, and of scale and shape from the fit of adjusted OS and PFS curves obtained from previous studies, a partitioned survival model was designed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of immunotherapy combinations versus chemotherapy alone. Parameter uncertainty in model inputs was assessed using one-way deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: The incremental cost of camrelizumab plus chemotherapy versus chemotherapy alone was $13,180.65, the lowest among all the other immunotherapy combinations. Furthermore, sintilimab plus chemotherapy (sint-chemo) provided the highest quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) benefit versus chemotherapy alone (incremental QALYs = 0.45). Sint-chemo yielded the best incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) versus chemotherapy alone (ICER = $34,912.09/QALY), at the current price. The cost-effectiveness probabilities were 32.01% and 93.91% for pembrolizumab plus chemotherapy, and atezolizumab plus bevacizumab plus chemotherapy, respectively (if the original price of the pembrolizumab, atezolizumab, and bevacizumab were decreased by 90%). CONCLUSIONS: Based on the fact that there is fierce competition in the PD-1/PD-L1 market, pharmaceutical enterprises should strive for greater efficacy, and optimal pricing strategy for therapies. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12885-023-10938-8.