Estimation of the size of the COVID-19 pandemic using the epidemiological wavelength model: results from OECD countries

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to simplify the previously developed epidemiological wavelength model and to expand the scope of the model with additional variables to estimate the magnitude of the COVID-19 pandemic. The applicability of the extended wavelength model was tested in Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) member countries. STUDY DESIGN: The epidemiological wavelengths of OECD member countries for the years 2020, 2021 and 2022 were estimated comparatively, considering the cumulative number of COVID-19 cases. METHODS: The size of the COVID-19 pandemic was estimated using the wavelength model. The scope of the wavelength model was expanded to include additional variables. The extended estimation model was improved by adding population density and human development index variables, in addition to the number of COVID-19 cases and number of days since the first case reported from the previous estimation model. RESULTS: According to the findings obtained from the wavelength model, the country with the highest epidemiological wavelength for the years 2020, 2021 and 2022 was the United States (W(e) = 29.96, W(e) = 28.63 and W(e) = 28.86, respectively), and the country with the lowest wavelength was Australia (W(e) = 10.50, W(e) = 13.14 and W(e) = 18.44, respectively). The average wavelength score of OECD member countries was highest in 2022 (W(e) = 24.32) and lowest in 2020 (W(e) = 22.84). The differences in the periodic wavelengths of OECD countries were analysed with the dependent t-test for paired samples in two periods, 2020–2021 and 2021–2022. There was a statistically significant difference between wavelengths in the 2020–2021 and 2021–2022 groups (t(36) = −3.670; P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Decision-makers can use the extended wavelength model to easily follow the progress of the epidemic and to make quicker and more reliable decisions.