HOW COMPLETE ARE TOBACCO SALES DATA? ASSESSING THE COMPREHENSIVENESS OF TOBACCO PRODUCT RETAIL SALES DATA THROUGH COMPARISONS TO EXCISE TAX COLLECTIONS

INTRODUCTION: Sales data analyses are increasingly used to guide tobacco regulatory science. However, such data do not cover specialist retailers like vape shops or tobacconists. Understanding the extent of the cigarette and electronic nicotine delivery system (ENDS) markets covered by sales data is critical to establishing such analyses’ generalizability and potential biases. METHODS: Sales data from Information Resources Incorporated (IRI) and Nielsen Retail Scanner data are used to conduct a tax gap analysis, comparing state tax collections based on cigarette and ENDS sales data to states’ annual 2018–2020 cigarette tax collections and monthly ENDS and cigarette tax revenue data for January 2018 to October 2021. Cigarette analyses consider the 23 US states covered by both IRI and Nielsen. ENDS analyses consider the subset of those states with per unit ENDS taxes: Louisiana, North Carolina, Ohio, and Washington. RESULTS: Across states covered by both sales datasets, IRI’s mean cigarette sales coverage was 92.3% (95% CI 88.3–96.2%), while Nielsen’s was 84.0% (95% CI 79.3–88.7%). Coverage rates for average ENDS sales were lower, ranging from 42.3% to 86.1% for IRI and 43.6% to 88.5% for Nielsen, but remained stable over time. CONCLUSIONS: IRI and Nielsen sales data capture almost the entire US cigarette market and, while coverage rates are lower, a substantial portion of the US market for ENDS as well. Coverage rates are relatively stable over time. Thus, with proper care to address shortcomings, sales data analyses can capture changes in the US market for these tobacco products.