Circulating FGF21 Concentration, Fasting Plasma Glucose, and the Risk of Type 2 Diabetes: Results From the PREVEND Study

OBJECTIVE: Fibroblast growth factor 21 (FGF21) is a peptide hormone synthesized by several organs and regulates, among others, energy homeostasis. In obesity, insulin resistance and type 2 diabetes (T2D), higher circulating FGF21 concentrations have been found. Temporal analyses in murine studies demonstrate that FGF21 increases before insulin resistance occurs. The current study aims to investigate in time-to-event analyses whether FGF21 may be an early biomarker in the development of T2D. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Circulating FGF21 was measured using an immunoassay of the Mesoscale U-PLEX assay platform. The study outcome was incident T2D. Associations of circulating FGF21 concentration with T2D were quantified using Cox proportional hazards models with adjustments for potential confounders. RESULTS: We included 5244 participants aged 52 ± 12 years, of whom 50% were male. Median [interquartile range] circulating FGF21 concentration was 860 [525-1329] pg/mL. During 7.3 [6.1-7.7] years of follow-up, 299 (5.7%) participants developed T2D. In fully adjusted analyses, higher circulating FGF21 concentration was associated with an increased risk of incident T2D (hazard ratio per doubling: 1.26 [95% CI, 1.06-1.51]; P = 0.008), with effect modification by fasting plasma glucose, consistent with strengthening of the association at lower fasting glucose (interaction coefficient: −0.12; P = 0.022). CONCLUSION: Higher circulating FGF21 concentrations are independently associated with an increased risk of incident T2D in participants with a low fasting plasma glucose, making circulating FGF21 concentration a potential early biomarker for type 2 diabetes.