Long‐term outcomes in heart failure with preserved ejection fraction: Predictors of cardiac and non‐cardiac mortality

AIMS: Heart failure (HF) with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) is associated with cardiovascular (CV) and non‐CV events, but long‐term risk is poorly studied. We assessed incidence and predictors of the long‐term CV and non‐CV events. METHODS AND RESULTS: Patients presenting with acute HF, EF ≥ 45%, and N‐terminal pro‐brain natriuretic peptide > 300 ng/L were enrolled in the Karolinska‐Rennes study in 2007–11 and were reassessed after 4–8 weeks in a stable state. Long‐term follow‐up was conducted in 2018. The Fine–Gray sub‐distribution hazard regression was used to detect predictors of CV and non‐CV deaths, investigated separately from baseline acute presentation (demographic data only) and from the 4–8 week outpatient visit (including echocardiographic data). Of 539 patients enrolled [median age 78 (interquartile range: 72–84) years; 52% female], 397 patients were available for the long‐term follow‐up. Over a median follow‐up time from acute presentation of 5.4 (2.1–7.9) years, 269 (68%) patients died, 128 (47%) from CV and 120 (45%) from non‐CV causes. Incidence rates per 1000 patient‐years were 62 [95% confidence interval (CI) 52–74] for CV and 58 (95% CI 48–69) for non‐CV death. Higher age and coronary artery disease (CAD) were independent predictors of CV death, and anaemia, stroke, kidney disease, and lower body mass index (BMI) and sodium concentrations of non‐CV death. From the stable 4–8 week visit, anaemia, CAD, and tricuspid regurgitation (>3.1 m/s) were independent predictors of CV death, and higher age of non‐CV death. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with acute decompensated HFpEF, over 5 years of follow‐up, nearly two‐thirds of patients died, half from CV and the other half from non‐CV causes. CAD and tricuspid regurgitation were associated with CV death. Stroke, kidney disease, lower BMI, and lower sodium were associated with non‐CV death. Anaemia and higher age were associated with both outcomes. [Correction added on 24 March 2023, after first online publication: In the first sentence of the Conclusions, ‘two‐thirds’ has been inserted before ‘of patients died...’ in this version.]