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Model-estimated impacts of pediatric respiratory syncytial virus prevention programs in Mali on asthma prevalence
BACKGROUND: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a leading cause of lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) in young children and is associated with subsequent recurrent wheezing illness and asthma (wheeze/asthma). RSV prevention may therefore reduce wheeze/asthma prevalence. OBJECTIVES: We estimat...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Elsevier
2023
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10193369/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37215432 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jacig.2023.100092 |
Sumario: | BACKGROUND: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a leading cause of lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) in young children and is associated with subsequent recurrent wheezing illness and asthma (wheeze/asthma). RSV prevention may therefore reduce wheeze/asthma prevalence. OBJECTIVES: We estimated the contribution of RSV LRTI and the impact of RSV prevention on recurrent wheeze/asthma in Mali. METHODS: We simulated 12 consecutive monthly birth cohorts in Mali and estimated RSV LRTI cases through 2 years and recurrent wheeze/asthma prevalence at 6 years under different RSV prevention scenarios: status quo, seasonal birth-dose extended half-life mAb, and seasonal birth-dose extended half-life mAb followed by 2 doses of pediatric vaccine (mAb + vaccine). We used World Health Organization (WHO) Preferred Product Characteristics for RSV prevention, demographic and RSV epidemiologic data from Mali, regional recurrent wheeze/asthma prevalence, and relative risk of recurrent wheeze/asthma given early childhood RSV LRTI. RESULTS: Among the simulated cohort of 778,680 live births, 10.0% had RSV LRTI by 2 years and 89.6% survived to 6 years. We estimated that 13.4% of all recurrent wheeze/asthma at 6 years was attributable to RSV LRTI. Recurrent wheeze/asthma prevalence at 6 years was 145.0 per 10,000 persons (RSV LRTI attributable) and 1084.2 per 10,000 persons (total). In mAb and mAb + vaccine scenarios, RSV LRTI cases decreased by 11.8% and 44.4%, respectively, and recurrent wheeze/asthma prevalence decreased by 11.8% and 44.4% (RSV LRTI attributable) and 1.6% and 5.9% (total). CONCLUSION: In Mali, RSV prevention programs may have a meaningful impact on chronic respiratory disease, strengthening the case for investment in RSV prevention. |
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