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A prediction model to predict in-hospital mortality in patients with acute type B aortic dissection

BACKGROUND: Acute type B aortic dissection (ABAD) is a life-threatening cardiovascular disease. A practicable and effective prediction model to predict and evaluate the risk of in-hospital death for ABAD is required. The present study aimed to construct a prediction model to predict the risk of in-h...

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Autores principales: Wang, Meng-meng, Gai, Min-Tao, Wang, Bao-zhu, Yesitayi, Gulinazi, Ma, Yi-Tong, Ma, Xiang
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: BioMed Central 2023
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10193648/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37198546
http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12872-023-03260-5
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author Wang, Meng-meng
Gai, Min-Tao
Wang, Bao-zhu
Yesitayi, Gulinazi
Ma, Yi-Tong
Ma, Xiang
author_facet Wang, Meng-meng
Gai, Min-Tao
Wang, Bao-zhu
Yesitayi, Gulinazi
Ma, Yi-Tong
Ma, Xiang
author_sort Wang, Meng-meng
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: Acute type B aortic dissection (ABAD) is a life-threatening cardiovascular disease. A practicable and effective prediction model to predict and evaluate the risk of in-hospital death for ABAD is required. The present study aimed to construct a prediction model to predict the risk of in-hospital death in ABAD patients. METHODS: A total of 715 patients with ABAD were recruited in the first affiliated hospital of Xinjiang medical university from April 2012 to May 2021. The information on the demographic and clinical characteristics of all subjects was collected. The logistic regression analysis, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, and nomogram were applied to screen the appropriate predictors and to establish a prediction model for the risk of in-hospital mortality in ABAD. The receiver operator characteristic curve and calibration plot were applied to validate the performance of the prediction model. RESULTS: Of 53 (7.41%) subjects occurred in-hospital death in 715 ABAD patients. The variables including diastolic blood pressure (DBP), platelets, heart rate, neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio, D-dimer, C-reactive protein (CRP), white blood cell (WBC), hemoglobin, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), procalcitonin, and left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) were shown a significant difference between the in-hospital death group and the in-hospital survival group (all P < 0.05). Furthermore, all these factors which existed differences, except CRP, were associated with in-hospital deaths in ABAD patients (all P < 0.05). Then, parameters containing LVEF, WBC, hemoglobin, LDH, and procalcitonin were identified as independent risk factors for in-hospital deaths in ABAD patients by adjusting compound variables (all P < 0.05). In addition, these independent factors were qualified as predictors to build a prediction model (AUC > 0.5, P < 0.05). The prediction model was shown a favorable discriminative ability (C index = 0.745) and demonstrated good consistency. CONCLUSIONS: The novel prediction model combined with WBC, hemoglobin, LDH, procalcitonin, and LVEF, was a practicable and valuable tool to predict in-hospital deaths in ABAD patients.
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spelling pubmed-101936482023-05-19 A prediction model to predict in-hospital mortality in patients with acute type B aortic dissection Wang, Meng-meng Gai, Min-Tao Wang, Bao-zhu Yesitayi, Gulinazi Ma, Yi-Tong Ma, Xiang BMC Cardiovasc Disord Research BACKGROUND: Acute type B aortic dissection (ABAD) is a life-threatening cardiovascular disease. A practicable and effective prediction model to predict and evaluate the risk of in-hospital death for ABAD is required. The present study aimed to construct a prediction model to predict the risk of in-hospital death in ABAD patients. METHODS: A total of 715 patients with ABAD were recruited in the first affiliated hospital of Xinjiang medical university from April 2012 to May 2021. The information on the demographic and clinical characteristics of all subjects was collected. The logistic regression analysis, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, and nomogram were applied to screen the appropriate predictors and to establish a prediction model for the risk of in-hospital mortality in ABAD. The receiver operator characteristic curve and calibration plot were applied to validate the performance of the prediction model. RESULTS: Of 53 (7.41%) subjects occurred in-hospital death in 715 ABAD patients. The variables including diastolic blood pressure (DBP), platelets, heart rate, neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio, D-dimer, C-reactive protein (CRP), white blood cell (WBC), hemoglobin, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), procalcitonin, and left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) were shown a significant difference between the in-hospital death group and the in-hospital survival group (all P < 0.05). Furthermore, all these factors which existed differences, except CRP, were associated with in-hospital deaths in ABAD patients (all P < 0.05). Then, parameters containing LVEF, WBC, hemoglobin, LDH, and procalcitonin were identified as independent risk factors for in-hospital deaths in ABAD patients by adjusting compound variables (all P < 0.05). In addition, these independent factors were qualified as predictors to build a prediction model (AUC > 0.5, P < 0.05). The prediction model was shown a favorable discriminative ability (C index = 0.745) and demonstrated good consistency. CONCLUSIONS: The novel prediction model combined with WBC, hemoglobin, LDH, procalcitonin, and LVEF, was a practicable and valuable tool to predict in-hospital deaths in ABAD patients. BioMed Central 2023-05-17 /pmc/articles/PMC10193648/ /pubmed/37198546 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12872-023-03260-5 Text en © The Author(s) 2023 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) ) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated in a credit line to the data.
spellingShingle Research
Wang, Meng-meng
Gai, Min-Tao
Wang, Bao-zhu
Yesitayi, Gulinazi
Ma, Yi-Tong
Ma, Xiang
A prediction model to predict in-hospital mortality in patients with acute type B aortic dissection
title A prediction model to predict in-hospital mortality in patients with acute type B aortic dissection
title_full A prediction model to predict in-hospital mortality in patients with acute type B aortic dissection
title_fullStr A prediction model to predict in-hospital mortality in patients with acute type B aortic dissection
title_full_unstemmed A prediction model to predict in-hospital mortality in patients with acute type B aortic dissection
title_short A prediction model to predict in-hospital mortality in patients with acute type B aortic dissection
title_sort prediction model to predict in-hospital mortality in patients with acute type b aortic dissection
topic Research
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10193648/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37198546
http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12872-023-03260-5
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