COVID-19 mobility restrictions and stay-at-home behaviour in 2020 were associated with higher retail food prices worldwide

COVID-19 policy responses have included mobility restrictions, and many people have chosen to stay at home to avoid exposure. These actions have ambiguous impacts on food prices, lowering demand for food away from home and perishables, while increasing supply costs for items where workers are most affected by the pandemic. We use evidence from 160 countries to identify the net direction and magnitude of association between countries' real cost of all food and mobility restriction stringency. We investigate the deviation of each month's price level in 2020 from that month's average price level during the previous three years and find that an increase in mobility restriction stringency from no restrictions to most restrictive is associated with an increase in the real cost of all food of more than one percentage point across all models. We then examine the relationship between retail food price levels by food group and stay-at-home behaviour around markets in 36 countries and find positive associations for non-perishables, dairy and eggs.