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The estimation of long and short term survival time and associated factors of HIV patients using mixture cure rate models

BACKGROUND: HIV is one of the deadliest epidemics and one of the most critical global public health issues. Some are susceptible to die among people living with HIV and some survive longer. The aim of the present study is to use mixture cure models to estimate factors affecting short- and long-term...

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Autores principales: Ghobadi, Khadijeh Najafi, Roshanaei, Ghodratollah, Poorolajal, Jalal, Shakiba, Ebrahim, KHassi, Kaivan, Mahjub, Hossein
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: BioMed Central 2023
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10201694/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37217850
http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12874-023-01949-x
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author Ghobadi, Khadijeh Najafi
Roshanaei, Ghodratollah
Poorolajal, Jalal
Shakiba, Ebrahim
KHassi, Kaivan
Mahjub, Hossein
author_facet Ghobadi, Khadijeh Najafi
Roshanaei, Ghodratollah
Poorolajal, Jalal
Shakiba, Ebrahim
KHassi, Kaivan
Mahjub, Hossein
author_sort Ghobadi, Khadijeh Najafi
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: HIV is one of the deadliest epidemics and one of the most critical global public health issues. Some are susceptible to die among people living with HIV and some survive longer. The aim of the present study is to use mixture cure models to estimate factors affecting short- and long-term survival of HIV patients. METHODS: The total sample size was 2170 HIV-infected people referred to the disease counseling centers in Kermanshah Province, in the west of Iran, from 1998 to 2019. A Semiparametric PH mixture cure model and a mixture cure frailty model were fitted to the data. Also, a comparison between these two models was performed. RESULTS: Based on the results of the mixture cure frailty model, antiretroviral therapy, tuberculosis infection, history of imprisonment, and mode of HIV transmission influenced short-term survival time (p-value < 0.05). On the other hand, prison history, antiretroviral therapy, mode of HIV transmission, age, marital status, gender, and education were significantly associated with long-term survival (p-value < 0.05). The concordance criteria (K-index) value for the mixture cure frailty model was 0.65 whereas for the semiparametric PH mixture cure model was 0.62. CONCLUSION: This study showed that the frailty mixture cure models is more suitable in the situation where the studied population consisted of two groups, susceptible and non-susceptible to the event of death. The people with a prison history, who received ART treatment, and contracted HIV through injection drug users survive longer. Health professionals should pay more attention to these findings in HIV prevention and treatment. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12874-023-01949-x.
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spelling pubmed-102016942023-05-23 The estimation of long and short term survival time and associated factors of HIV patients using mixture cure rate models Ghobadi, Khadijeh Najafi Roshanaei, Ghodratollah Poorolajal, Jalal Shakiba, Ebrahim KHassi, Kaivan Mahjub, Hossein BMC Med Res Methodol Research BACKGROUND: HIV is one of the deadliest epidemics and one of the most critical global public health issues. Some are susceptible to die among people living with HIV and some survive longer. The aim of the present study is to use mixture cure models to estimate factors affecting short- and long-term survival of HIV patients. METHODS: The total sample size was 2170 HIV-infected people referred to the disease counseling centers in Kermanshah Province, in the west of Iran, from 1998 to 2019. A Semiparametric PH mixture cure model and a mixture cure frailty model were fitted to the data. Also, a comparison between these two models was performed. RESULTS: Based on the results of the mixture cure frailty model, antiretroviral therapy, tuberculosis infection, history of imprisonment, and mode of HIV transmission influenced short-term survival time (p-value < 0.05). On the other hand, prison history, antiretroviral therapy, mode of HIV transmission, age, marital status, gender, and education were significantly associated with long-term survival (p-value < 0.05). The concordance criteria (K-index) value for the mixture cure frailty model was 0.65 whereas for the semiparametric PH mixture cure model was 0.62. CONCLUSION: This study showed that the frailty mixture cure models is more suitable in the situation where the studied population consisted of two groups, susceptible and non-susceptible to the event of death. The people with a prison history, who received ART treatment, and contracted HIV through injection drug users survive longer. Health professionals should pay more attention to these findings in HIV prevention and treatment. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12874-023-01949-x. BioMed Central 2023-05-22 /pmc/articles/PMC10201694/ /pubmed/37217850 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12874-023-01949-x Text en © The Author(s) 2023 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) ) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated in a credit line to the data.
spellingShingle Research
Ghobadi, Khadijeh Najafi
Roshanaei, Ghodratollah
Poorolajal, Jalal
Shakiba, Ebrahim
KHassi, Kaivan
Mahjub, Hossein
The estimation of long and short term survival time and associated factors of HIV patients using mixture cure rate models
title The estimation of long and short term survival time and associated factors of HIV patients using mixture cure rate models
title_full The estimation of long and short term survival time and associated factors of HIV patients using mixture cure rate models
title_fullStr The estimation of long and short term survival time and associated factors of HIV patients using mixture cure rate models
title_full_unstemmed The estimation of long and short term survival time and associated factors of HIV patients using mixture cure rate models
title_short The estimation of long and short term survival time and associated factors of HIV patients using mixture cure rate models
title_sort estimation of long and short term survival time and associated factors of hiv patients using mixture cure rate models
topic Research
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10201694/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37217850
http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12874-023-01949-x
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