The Impact of Population Ageing on Rural Aged Care Needs in Australia: Identifying Projected Gaps in Service Provision by 2032

This observational study examines and estimates the trends and impact of population ageing on rural aged care needs in Australia. With its universal health system and subsidised aged care system, Australia is among those countries with a long life expectancy. Being a geographically large country with a relatively small and dispersed population presents challenges for equitable access to aged care service provision. While this is widely acknowledged, there is little empirical evidence to demonstrate the magnitude and location of the aged care service provision gaps in the next decade. We performed time series analyses on administrative data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics and the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare GEN databases. The Aged Care Planning Regions (ACPR) were classified according to geographical remoteness using the Modified Monash Model scale. There is currently a shortfall of 2000+ places in residential aged care in rural and remote areas of Australia based on 2021 data. By 2032, population ageing will mean that an additional 3390 residential care places and around 3000 home care packages will be required in rural and remote communities alone. Geographical disparities in aged care exist in Australia and continue to worsen, requiring immediate action.