CT radiomics features of meso-esophageal fat in predicting overall survival of patients with locally advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma treated by definitive chemoradiotherapy

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the value of CT radiomics features of meso-esophageal fat in the overall survival (OS) prediction of patients with locally advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). METHODS: A total of 166 patients with locally advanced ESCC in two medical centers were retrospectively analyzed. The volume of interest (VOI) of meso-esophageal fat and tumor were manually delineated on enhanced chest CT using ITK-SNAP. Radiomics features were extracted from the VOIs by Pyradiomics and then selected using the t-test, the Cox regression analysis, and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator. The radiomics scores of meso-esophageal fat and tumors for OS were constructed by a linear combination of the selected radiomic features. The performance of both models was evaluated and compared by the C-index. Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was employed to analyze the prognostic value of the meso-esophageal fat-based model. A combined model for risk evaluation was constructed based on multivariate analysis. RESULTS: The CT radiomic model of meso-esophageal fat showed valuable performance for survival analysis, with C-indexes of 0.688, 0.708, and 0.660 in the training, internal, and external validation cohorts, respectively. The 1-year, 2-year, and 3-year ROC curves showed AUCs of 0.640–0.793 in the cohorts. The model performed equivalently compared to the tumor-based radiomic model and performed better compared to the CT features-based model. Multivariate analysis showed that meso-rad-score was the only factor associated with OS. CONCLUSIONS: A baseline CT radiomic model based on the meso-esophagus provide valuable prognostic information for ESCC patients treated with dCRT. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12885-023-10973-5.