Dose–response relationship between device-measured physical activity and incident type 2 diabetes: findings from the UK Biobank prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND: Most studies investigating the association between physical activity (PA) and the risk of type 2 diabetes are derived from self-reported questionnaires, with limited evidence using device-based measurements. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the dose–response relationship between device-measured PA and incident type 2 diabetes. METHODS: This prospective cohort study included 40,431 participants of the UK Biobank. Wrist-worn accelerometers were used to estimate total, light, moderate, vigorous and moderate-to-vigorous PA. The associations between PA and incident type 2 diabetes were analysed using Cox-proportional hazard models. The mediating role of body mass index (BMI) was tested under a causal counterfactual framework. RESULTS: The median follow-up period was 6.3 years (IQR: 5.7–6.8), with 591 participants developing type 2 diabetes. Compared to those achieving < 150 min/week of moderate PA, people achieving 150–300, 300–600 and > 600 min/week were at 49% (95% CI 62–32%), 62% (95% CI 71–50%) and 71% (95% CI 80–59%) lower risk of type 2 diabetes, respectively. For vigorous PA, compared to those achieving < 25 min/week, individuals achieving 25–50, 50–75 and > 75 min/week were at 38% (95% CI 48–33%), 48% (95% CI 64–23%) and 64% (95% CI 78–42%) lower type 2 diabetes risk, respectively. Twelve per cent and 20% of the associations between vigorous and moderate PA and type 2 diabetes were mediated by lower BMI, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: PA has clear dose-response relationship with a lower risk of type 2 diabetes. Our findings support the current aerobic PA recommendations but suggest that additional PA beyond the recommendations is associated with even greater risk reduction. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The UK Biobank study was approved by the North West Multi-Centre Research Ethics Committee (Ref 11/NW/0382 on June 17, 2011). SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12916-023-02851-5.