The past, present, and future of ecogeographic isolation between closely related Aquilegia plants

Quantifying the strength of the ecogeographic barrier is an important aspect of plant speciation research, and serves as a practical step to understanding the evolutionary trajectory of plants under climate change. Here, we quantified the extent of ecogeographic isolation in four closely related Aquilegia species that radiated in the Mountains of SW China and adjacent regions, often lacking intrinsic barriers. We used environmental niche models to predict past, present, and future species potential distributions and compared them to determine the degree of overlap and ecogeographic isolation. Our investigation found significant ecological differentiation in all studied species pairs except A. kansuensis and A. ecalacarata. The current strengths of ecogeographic isolation are above 0.5 in most cases. Compared with current climates, most species had an expanding range in the Last Glacial Maximum, the Mid Holocene, and under four future climate scenarios. Our results suggested that ecogeographic isolation contributes to the diversification and maintenance of Aquilegia species in the Mountains of northern and SW China and would act as an essential reproductive barrier in the future.