Predicting Success: An Examination of the Predictive Validity of a Measure of Motivational-Developmental Dimensions in College Admissions

Amid the COVID-19 pandemic, an unprecedented number of higher education institutions adopted test-optional admissions policies. The proliferation of these policies and the criticism of standardized admissions tests as unreliable predictors of applicants’ postsecondary educational promise have prompted the reimagining of evaluative methodologies in college admissions. However, few institutions have designed and implemented new measures of applicants’ potential for success, rather opting to redistribute the weight given to other variables such as high school course grades and high school GPA. We use multiple regression to investigate the predictive validity of a measure of non-cognitive, motivational-developmental dimensions implemented as part of a test-optional admissions policy at a large urban research university in the United States. The measure, composed of four short-answer essay questions, was developed based on the social-cognitive motivational and developmental-constructivist perspectives. Our findings suggest that scores derived from the measure make a statistically significant but small contribution to the prediction of undergraduate GPA and 4-year bachelor’s degree completion. We also find that the measure does not make a statistically significant nor practical contribution to the prediction of 5-year graduation.