A cross-jurisdictional comparison on residential waste collection rates during earlier waves of COVID-19

There is currently a lack of studies on residential waste collection during COVID-19 in North America. SARIMA models were developed to predict residential waste collection rates (RWCR) across four North American jurisdictions before and during the pandemic. Unlike waste disposal rates, RWCR is relatively less sensitive to the changes in COVID-19 regulatory policies and administrative measures, making RWCR more appropriate for cross-jurisdictional comparisons. It is hypothesized that the use of RWCR in forecasting models will help us to better understand the residential waste generation behaviors in North America. Both SARIMA models performed satisfactorily in predicting Regina's RWCR. The SARIMA D(CV) model's performance is noticeably better during COVID-19, with a 15.7% lower RMSE than that of the benchmark model (SARIMA B(CV)). The skewness of overprediction ratios was noticeably different between jurisdictions, and modeling errors were generally lower in less populated cities. Conflicting behavioral changes might have altered the residential waste generation characteristics and recycling behaviors differently across the jurisdictions. Overall, SARIMA D(CV) performed better in the Canadian jurisdiction than in U.S. jurisdictions, likely due to the model's bias on a less variable input dataset. The use of RWCR in forecasting models helps us to better understand the residential waste generation behaviors in North America and better prepare us for a future global pandemic.