Groundfish biodiversity change in northeastern Pacific waters under projected warming and deoxygenation

In the coming decades, warming and deoxygenation of marine waters are anticipated to result in shifts in the distribution and abundance of fishes, with consequences for the diversity and composition of fish communities. Here, we combine fisheries-independent trawl survey data spanning the west coast of the USA and Canada with high-resolution regional ocean models to make projections of how 34 groundfish species will be impacted by changes in temperature and oxygen in British Columbia (BC) and Washington. In this region, species that are projected to decrease in occurrence are roughly balanced by those that are projected to increase, resulting in considerable compositional turnover. Many, but not all, species are projected to shift to deeper depths as conditions warm, but low oxygen will limit how deep they can go. Thus, biodiversity will likely decrease in the shallowest waters (less than 100 m), where warming will be greatest, increase at mid-depths (100–600 m) as shallow species shift deeper, and decrease at depths where oxygen is limited (greater than 600 m). These results highlight the critical importance of accounting for the joint role of temperature, oxygen and depth when projecting the impacts of climate change on marine biodiversity. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Detecting and attributing the causes of biodiversity change: needs, gaps and solutions’.