Associations of Renal Function Trajectories and Long‐Term Cardiovascular Risks Among a Population Without Chronic Kidney Disease

BACKGROUND: The longitudinal trajectories of renal function have been associated with cardiovascular events in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). However, the change pattern of renal function in those without CKD has not yet been reported. We aim to explore patterns of renal function change in a non‐CKD population and its associated risks with cardiovascular outcomes. METHODS AND RESULTS: The present study analyzed data from 4 prospective cohorts and was restricted to participants without baseline CKD. The primary outcome was major adverse cardiovascular events, defined as a composite of myocardial infarction, chronic heart failure, stroke, and cardiovascular deaths. We used a group‐based trajectory model to identify latent groups and analyzed the associated risk with Cox regression models. The complete dates of this study were June 1, 2020, through January 1, 2021. The final sample comprised 23 760 participants (mean age, 58.63 [9.12] years, 10 618 men, and 17 799 White participants). During 20.56 years follow‐up, 8328 (35.05%) first major adverse cardiovascular events happened. Four trajectories in estimated glomerular renal function and 3 patterns of CKD progression were identified. Compared with subjects assigned to class I trajectory (high to mildly decreased group), the adjusted hazard ratios of major adverse cardiovascular events for class II (normal to mildly decreased group), class III (normal to moderately decreased group), and class IV (mildly to severely decreased group) were 1.11 (95% CI, 1.01–1.23), 1.27 (95% CI, 1.14–1.40), and 1.56 (95% CI, 1.38–1.77), respectively. Likewise, participants assigned to the slow and rapid progression groups had elevated HRs for major adverse cardiovascular events (1.75 [95% CI, 1.39–2.21] and 2.19 [95% CI, 1.68–2.86], respectively) when compared with the stable group. Findings were generally consistent in stratification analysis, but significant interaction effects by age and smoking status were detected. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we identified unique trajectory groups for renal function. These findings may signal an underlying high‐risk population and inspire future studies on individualized risk management.