Driving forces and relationship between air pollution and economic growth based on EKC hypothesis and STIRPAT model: evidence from Henan Province, China

The aim of this research is to analyze the main influencing factors and relationship between atmospheric environment and economic society. Using the panel data of 18 cities in Henan Province from 2006 to 2020, this paper employed some advanced econometric estimation included entropy method, extended environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) and STIRPAT model to conduct empirical estimations. The results show that most regions in Henan Province have verified the existence of the EKC hypothesis; and the peak of air pollution level in all cities of Henan Province generally occurred in around 2014. Multiple linear Ridge regression indicated that the positive driving forces of air pollution in most cities in Henan Province are industrial structure and population size; the negative driving forces are urbanization level, technical level and greening degree. Finally, we used the grey GM (1, 1) model to predict the atmospheric environment of Henan Province in 2025, 2030, 2035 and 2040. What should pay close attention to is that air pollution levels in northeastern and central Henan Province will continue to remain high.